A good season to be a Sixers fan

Yes, I know the season has already started. But that's not going to stop me from finally posting my prediction for the Sixer's season. As with last year, I'm basing my prediction on Wins Produced.

And what does my prediction tell me? It tells me that it could be a very good season to be a Sixers fan.

I made two predictions. The first one is probably too optimistic-- it's based on the Sixer's playing a nine man rotation and limiting the playing time of many of the players not viewed favorably by Wins Produced-- but at the same time I don't think it's completely out of line with the line-ups that Mo Cheeks will probably favor this year. The second prediction is probably way too pessimistic, but it probably reflects what could happen if the Sixer's main players get a couple of nicks and miss some (but not a huge amount of) time.

Without further ado....

Prediction 1: For this prediction, I assumed that Mo Cheeks would play a relatively tight rotation of nine players. I assumed that he'd play all of our starters 35 minutes a night, split the remaining time at the PG, SG, & SF positions between Louis Williams and Willie Green, play Reggies Evans for the remaining PF time, and play rookie Marreese Speights for the remaining time at C. The two other big assumptions I made were that Elton Brand would return to his form from 2006-07 and that Mareese Speights would perform at the level predicted by Professor Berri based on his college (and preseason) stats; other than those assumptions I predicted the remaining players to perform at their 2007-08 level.

In numbers ([name] [WP48] [min/gm] = [Wins Produced]:

• Andre Miller [.167] [35 min/gm] = 9.99
• Andre Igoudala [.172] [35 min/gm] = 10.28
• Thaddeus Young [.099] [35 min/gm] = 5.92
• Elton Brand [.213] [35 min/gm] = 12.74
• Samuel Dalembert [.197] [35 min/gm] = 11.78
• Louis Williams [.080] [20 min/gm] = 2.73
• Willie Green [-.019] [19 min/gm] = -0.62
• Reggie Evans [.143] [13 min/gm] = 3.18
• Marreese Speights [.068] [13 min/gm] = 1.51

That gives a projected win total of 57.51 wins. Wow. I was optimistic about this season, but that projection really blows my mind. Now, like I said at the outset, this projection is probably a little too optimistic, primarily because it assumes a tight rotation and no injuries to our key players. On the other hand, there's a decent chance that Cheeks plays some of the starters (especially Igoudala) closer to 40 minutes each night. So a super-best-case scenario could be even more impressive.

Prediction 2: For this second prediction, I assumed that the other players on the roster would get playing time over the course of the season. I didn't have a good way to figure out where those minutes would come from (at least not a quick way), so I just assumed that each of the starters would play 30 minutes instead of 35 minutes, Royal Ivey and Kareem Rush would split the newly available time at the PG, SG, & SF positions, and Donyell Marshall and Theo Ratliff would get the newly available time at the PF and C positons, respectively. The way I look at it, we can just assume that this playing time occurs when the starters need some time to rest from minor injuries that always occur over the course of a season (ankle sprains, etc.). The one other big assumption I made was that Elton Brand would play at his injury-reduced level from last season. Since Donyell Marshall played for two teams last year, I just averaged his production from both teams (without taking the different amounts of playing time into account).

In numbers ([name] [WP48] [min/gm] = [Wins Produced]:

• Andre Miller [.167] [30 min/gm] = 8.56
• Andre Igoudala [.172] [30 min/gm] = 8.82
• Thaddeus Young [.099] [30 min/gm] = 5.07
• Elton Brand [.058] [30 min/gm] = 2.97
  
• Samuel Dalembert [.197] [30 min/gm] = 10.10
• Louis Williams [.080] [20 min/gm] = 2.73
• Willie Green [-.019] [19 min/gm] = -0.62
• Reggie Evans [.143] [13 min/gm] = 3.18
• Marreese Speights [.068] [13 min/gm] = 1.51
• Royal Ivey [-.054] [8 min/gm] = -0.74
• Kareem Rush [-.001] [7 min/gm] = -0.01
• Donyell Marshall [-.043] [5 min/gm] = -0.36
• Theo Ratliff [.059] [5 min/gm] = 0.50

That gives a projected win total of 41.71 wins. Not as good as the first projection, but still slightly better than the Sixers did this past season. What's the difference? Well, reducing the starters' playing time and replacing them with the end of the bench players accounts for a reduction of about 8 wins. The remaining reduction comes from assuming that Brand can't regain his pre-injury form.

I think it's likely that the end of the bench is going to get playing time (although it might be at the expense of the first tier of substitutes rather than at the expense of the starters if it isn't as a result of injuries), but based on the first three games of the season I think there's a decent chance that Brand will return to his old form (I'm pretty sure I read that he was averaging 18 points and 14 rebounds).

So my prediction for the year: I'll pretend I'm King Solomon and cut everything in the middle- 50 wins during the regular season, and hopefully home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Like I said at the beginning, it looks like it could be a good year to be a fan of the Sixers.

What do you think?

[And for commenter Louis since I know he likes to pick on my grammar- is it Sixers fan, Sixer's fan, or Sixers' fan?]

Roll out the ball and let's play!

Training camp has arrived, so the season is just around the corner. If by "just around the corner" you mean a month away. With training camp here, it's also time for predictions to come out of the woodwork. I'm not going to track them all down this year like I did last year (no time!), but I couldn't help noting John Hollinger's season preview. You can catch his views on the Sixers here. In short: he predicts them to come in 3rd in the Eastern Conference. I think he might be a bit optimistic (although not necessarily), but I also think that his thinking is going to be more or less in line with the views of most mainstream sportswriters. That's a sea change from last season when Hollinger, and most writers, predicted the Sixers to come in last. And that's definitely a change that I could get used to.

Sixers and Wages of Wins

The Wages of Wins post on the Sixers is up. Professor Berri kindly linked to my post from the other day which was posted in response to the same comment that led to his post. Go read the whole thing.

The short version: Igoudala, Dalembert, and Miller are the primary win producers for the Sixers, and they've basically maintained their production from last year. Reggie Evans has not done as well this year as last year, but he's still been above average. Evans' decrease in production has been offset by having Thaddeus Young replace Korver in the rotation and by the improvement of Willie Green from terrible to bad. So taken all together, the Sixers are doing almost as well right now as they were predicted to do by Wins Produced at the beginning of the season.

Anyway, Professor Berri says it better, so go read the article here.

No one saw this coming...but we did!

Apparently TrueHoop is going to be spending time this week covering the "surprising" Sixers.

I'm actually pretty excited to see what sort of information Henry digs up this week and shares with us, but I did want to take exception to one comment in his post from this morning.

A veteran Philadelphia beat writer just said to me that "if anyone tells you they saw this coming, they're lying."

I enjoy reading the Sixers coverage on-line every day at philly.com, so I don't want to come off as too critical of the "veteran beat writer." To the extent that he's saying that most pundits and experts predicted the Sixers to be bad this year, then he's certainly correct. That said, I think the idea that no one could have seen a .500 season coming is a bit absurd.

Last season, the Sixers were 26-21 after the Iverson trade and waiving Chris Webber. Considering the lack of roster turnover from last year to this year, a prediction of a .500 record seems like a perfectly reasonable prediction to have made for this season. And guess what? I actually did make that prediction at the start of the season.

Not good enough? Well, you could always have tried making a prediction based on some of the advanced stats that are hanging around the internet, like Win Score. Oh wait. I did that, too, and my WP48-based prediction was for the Sixers to be a slightly better than .500 team. That prediction was probably a tad optimistic (as Professor Berri pointed out in the comments to this post), but apparently not by too much.

So somehow I managed to come up with two completely independent methods for predicting the Sixers performance for the year, and they both give reasons for thinking that a .500 record for the Sixers was a perfectly reasonable prediction for this season.

Good thing no one saw this coming.

[Just to be clear, the Sixers are currently at 37-37 on the season.]

One more set of predictions

[oops- meant to post this a few days ago. Season's started already, but these predictions are still worth looking at.]

As a complement to the predictions he made for Sports Illustrated, Ian Thomsen also convinced the scouts he talked with to make predictions for the year. I'd say the predictions from the scouts are pretty standard (that is, they think the Sixers will be bad-- 14th in the East), and they definitely rely heavily on what happened last year. In aggregate, they bump Orlando out of the playoffs because they move Boston to the head of the pack in the Eastern conference, but other than that they predict all the same teams to make the playoffs this year as made it last year (for both conferences). I don't think there will be much movement either (I only predict the Nets and the Warriors to drop out of the playoffs), but it's striking how little movement they expect there to be.

If I have the time, I'll try and put all the different predictions I've found into a spreadsheet so at the end of the season it'll be easy to compare how everyone did (including myself).

[Update: Make that two. The Wages of Wins predicts the Eastern Conference here, and the Western Conference here.]

[Update 2: Okay, there are tons of other predictions and previews out there, but I'm done tracking them down! You'll need to fend for yourself.]

Western Conference Predictions

The Real Deal Holyfield (Toss a Coin)

(1) San Antonio- Tim Duncan. Manu Ginobili. Tony Parker. Bruce Bown. The random guy they’re playing at center this year. Best team in basketball. Do I really need to say anything more? They led the league with a +8.4 point differential last year—more than a full point higher than the next closest team (Phoenix). I love watching them play, but I understand why people don’t find them interesting—there’s nothing new to say, and no drama surrounding them. Maybe Duncan should grow his hair out and dye it green just to see how the media reacts. They just play top-flight, winning basketball. I’d actually be surprised if they end up with the best record (since it doesn’t seem to be a priority for them), but I just can’t see a reason not to pick them to finish first. [58 wins]

(2) Houston- I’m weighing the continued maturation of Yao, the splendor of McGrady, the theft of Luis Scola from the Spurs, the defense of Shane Battier, and the re-acquisition of Mike James and Steve Fancis against the loss of the miracle worker Jeff Van Gundy. Rick Adelman’s teams generally perform very well in the regular season, but Houston’s success last year was based on being one of the very best defensive teams in the league and the loss of JVG is definitely going to hurt them in this area (just remember how badly the Knicks fell apart a few years ago when JVG left them mid-season). Still, the Rockets are loaded. [58 wins]

(3) Phoenix- It’s hard to top Phoenix’s Big 3 of Nash, Stoudemire, and Marion. I’m not a huge Amare fan, but there’s no doubt that his hands and finishing ability are a great fit with Nash. And Marion is a great fit anywhere (as long as his pouting over not being “The Man” doesn’t interfere with his fantastic play). It’s also hard to keep playing your top players the number of minutes that Phoenix’s top guns have been playing the last few seasons. They have arguably even less depth this year than the previous two years, so we’ll see if they can continue to log the heavy minutes without breaking down. They remain a running team with the addition of Grant Hill, but I’m not sure I’d still consider them a team of 3-point shooters. It sounds like all I’m doing is bad-mouthing the Suns, but you know what? They’re still going to win close to 60 games this season. [58 wins]

(4) Dallas- I don’t think they’re going to have any problem bouncing back from last year’s crushing playoff loss to the Golden State Warriors. They have one of the league’s most efficient offenses as well as one of the five best defenses in the league. They had the third best point differential last season (+7.2), and they basically return the same group. They’ll be fine. The 67 wins last season were a bit of a fluke based on their point differential, so don’t be surprised if their win total drops by a decent chunk even though they’ll probably be basically as good as last year. [58 wins]

So Close and yet So Far

(5) Utah- It isn’t Utah’s fault that they’ve become good at the same time that the league is boasting four teams that have the potential to be juggernauts (just like it wasn’t Stockton and Malone’s fault that their Utah Jazz teams peaked at the same time Michael Jordan’s Bulls were peaking). They’re probably as good as the top three teams in the Eastern Conference (maybe even better), but they just aren’t in the same tier as the top four teams in the West. Maybe Deron Williams makes “the Leap” this year, maybe Andrei Kirilenko figures out a way to better fit in with the team as a small forward, and maybe someone fills the void left by Derek Fischer’s departure to give the Jazz a top quality shooting guard. It will probably take all three happening to boost the Jazz into the top ranks of the Western Conference. More likely, one of the three happens and the Jazz have the “misfortune” of being a really good team and racking up a whole bunch of wins, but then needing to play a really, really good team and getting bounced from the playoffs in the first round. Sorry, Utah. [52 wins]

What about us?

(6) Memphis- Last year, Memphis was absolutely horrible, losing a league worst 60 games with a -5.1 point differential. But the season started with Gasol injured, and by the time he returned to the line-up the Grizzlies had already dug themselves a hole from which they couldn’t get out. Two years ago, Memphis was the fourth best team in the Western Conference, winning 49 games with a +3.7 point differential. The off-season acquisitions of Mike Conley, Juan Carlos Navarro, and Darko Milicic, plus the services of Gasol (and Mike Miller) for the entire season make me expect that last season is going to become a fading memory in Memphis very quickly. [47 wins]

(7) Denver- They score a lot of points, but I don’t think they really worry any of the top teams. No one would be surprised if this was the year Iverson’s body finally broke down or if Camby misses significant time with an injury. Barring that, Denver will be again what they’ve been the last two seasons—a fun team to watch that squeaks its way into the Western Conference playoffs. It’s possible that Carmelo becomes the efficient scorer for the Nuggets that he is with Team USA, but somehow I doubt it. [45 wins, again] [After writing this prediction, it came to my attention that Kenyon Martin is apparently healthy again. If he regains his pre-injury form (from back when he was with the Nets), then I'd bump Denver up to Utah's level. Also, Chucky Atkins got hurt, but I didn't think he was that good so I don't think his injury matters.]

(8) LA Lakers- If Kobe gets traded, then all bets are obviously off and we can forget that I ever made a prediction for the Lakers. If he isn’t traded, then I think the Lakers will find their way into the playoffs again. And, with Kobe on the team, they’ll be the team that no one wants to face in the first round because of Kobe’s potential to explode. That said, the Lakers big issue will be defense. They actually had one of the most efficient offenses in the league last year, but they couldn’t have stopped a high school JV squad (well, maybe a bad one). You’ll laugh, but having a healthy Kwame Brown and Chris Mihm (along with a slightly more mature Andrew Bynum) should actually make a big difference here. On the other hand, Odom’s lingering shoulder trouble could make a big difference in the opposite direction. The Lakers could implode and find themselves out of the playoffs, or they could bring it defensively and find themselves just a hair below Utah. I’ll split the difference. [42 wins]

(9) New Orleans- They’ve been on the verge of the playoffs the last two seasons, and it looks like they’ll be on the verge of the playoffs again this year. I haven’t really seen them play, so it’s hard for me to comment on them. Tyson Chandler anchors them defensively, and he had a very solid summer with Team USA. Plus, a few of their key players will hopefully be healthier this season (Chris Paul, Peja Stojakavic). Add it all together, and you have another season where they’ll be in the mix right to the final whistle. But I can’t pick everyone to make the playoffs, and they’re the odd men out. [41 wins]

(10) Sacramento- Two years ago, they were a solid 8^th seed with 44 wins and a +1.5 point differential. Last season, they were pretty bad—winning only 33 games. What happened? Well, Bibby and Miller had bad seasons. Just as importantly, they had some bad luck—despite a point differential of -1.8, they lost 6 more games than New Orleans which had a -1.6 point differential (and they only won 1 more game than Portland which had a -4.3 point differential). I expect Bibby and Miller to bounce back (although I’ve never really been a big Bibby fan), and I expect the odds to at least even out a little bit. Unfortunately for them, the top of the Western Conference is loaded, and even a .500 record won’t get them into the playoffs. [41 wins] [Bibby is now expected to be out for the first two months of the season with a hand injury. I don't think it's a devastating blow since I've tended to think Bibby was overrated, but it might be enough of a blow to eliminate their chances at the post-season.]

It was nice while it lasted

(11) Golden State- Sam, weren’t you paying attention last year? Didn’t you see us knock off Dallas in the playoffs? Yes, I did. Then I watched Utah crush Golden State in the second round. And then in the off-season I watched Golden State trade away Jason Richardson for 10 cents on the dollar. The Warriors are really going to miss Richardson. And they’re also really going to be hurt by all the coaches in the league having had a chance to watch the playoff series against the Jazz. Everyone learned that if you slow the tempo down against Golden State, your big men will be able to abuse Golden State on the offensive glass. By mid-season, whichever small player is playing the bulk of his minutes at power forward in Nellie’s small ball offense is going to be incredibly sore. [35 wins]

I’ve heard the NBDL is looking for some teams

(12) Minnesota- Celtics West takes the floor in Minnesota this season, and it’s going to be a bit rough. That said, I’m probably a little bit higher on their prospects than most people, but most likely because I became invested in a number of these players from watching so many of their games the last few years in Boston. Al Jefferson is very, very good—an all-star if he had remained in the East, but probably destined to be overlooked in the West this season. I’m also much higher on Telfair than just about anyone else I know or have heard discuss him. With the players on the Timberwolves’ roster, I’d put the ball in Telfair’s hands and tell him to push it and get his teammates open looks in transition. Go small with Telfair, Foye, Green, Smith, and Jefferson (with Brewer coming off the bench), and see what you can create. You won’t get many (any?) defensive stops, but you’ll be fun to watch! I’m higher on this team than most, but I’m not crazy. [25 wins] [Since I made my prediction, the Timberwolves have traded Ricky Davis and Mark Blount for Antoine Walker, etc. I don't think this trade really matters for their record this year, and I also don't think Walker is going to be with the team in a few weeks. So what does that all mean for this prediction? Who knows!]

(13) Portland- The difference between this year’s team and last year’s 32 win (-4.3 point differential) team? They traded away Zach Randolph. Oh, and they reacquired Steve Blake. The trade of Randolph made sense with the expected arrival of Oden, but now that Oden is injured the Trailblazers are going to be in serious trouble. The only way they don’t drop in the standings is if all of their young players take big steps forward. I’m not saying it won’t happen with Aldridge and Roy, but I’m not sure which other young players are going to step up with them. This year will be a step backwards, but that will just set them up to take two huge strides forward next season. [23 wins]

(14) Seattle- Sam Presti, the Sonics new GM, comes from the Spurs so he gets the benefit of the doubt, but I have no idea what he was thinking this offseason. They lost Rashard Lewis and Ray Allen for basically nothing (sorry, I don’t think Jeff Green will be a difference maker in the pros). Durant will score a bunch of points this year, but I expect his shooting percentage to be in the low 40s because there won’t be anyone to take the pressure off of him. Plus, the looming specter of the move to Oklahoma City (if it isn’t thwarted by a pending lawsuit) means that the team is probably going to be playing a lot of home games in a mostly empty arena. I think it’ll be a long year in the Emerald City. One bright spot? I like the Kurt Thomas signing (I guess I should say trade), but I’m not sure what he’s doing on this team other than serving as trade bait when the trade deadline approaches. [22 wins]

(15) LA Clippers- Chris Kaman was the fifth best starter on the Clippers when they had their successful season two years ago, and he’s a really good player for your fifth spot. This year, he projects to be their second best player (assuming he bounces back from his poor performance last year). That is not a good sign if you’re a Clippers fan. Cassell and Mobley are old, Shaun Livingston still isn’t back from injury, and I don’t even want to talk about the injury to Elton Brand, which just seemed arbitrarily cruel on the part of the sports gods. The Clippers are going to be the Corey Maggette and Chris Kaman show, and that means it’ll be a long year for L.A.’s “other” team. [20 wins] [I stand by my prediction, but I came across this post over at Clips Nation which makes a strong argument that the Clippers don't deserve to be ranked 15th in the Western Conference (the writer suggests a ranking of 12th would be much more realistic). I think he makes some good points, so go read it.]

Eastern Conference Predictions

Cream of the Crop

(1) Chicago- They led the conference with a +5.0 point differential last season, and during the off-season they replaced P.J. Brown with Joe Smith (call it even) and added Joakim Noah. Add in a little more seasoning for Tyrus Thomas, and you have probably the best team in the conference over the course of this regular season. What’s not to like? [50 wins]

(2) Detroit- Moving McDyess to the starting line-up makes the first five even tougher, but puts a lot of pressure on the bench players. Assuming they’re given a chance to play with a little leeway, the bench might struggle a bit early in the season and cost Detroit some wins, but it’ll help them in the long-run. This might be the year Rasheed blows up and takes the team down with him, but I’m a Wallace fan and think he’ll keep it in check. [49 wins]

(3) Boston- Call them the C’eatles (per Garnett) or the GAP kids (per me), but don’t call them pretenders. They’ll be for real. All the changes to their roster makes looking at last year’s results completely worthless. With three locks for the Eastern Conference all-star game on the roster, Boston has the Eastern Conference’s equivalent of the Suns’ Big 3 (only slower paced and playing in an area with much more snow...). If Doc Rivers is smart enough to not play his stars huge minutes during the regular season, it’ll cost them some wins during the regular season but help them in the long-run. Save the 40+ minute games by the Big 3 for the playoffs, and the Celtics will be heading all the way to the NBA Finals. [48 wins]

You need a Crystal Ball for these Guys

(4) Cleveland- They represented the Eastern Conference in the Finals last year. They had one of the best defenses in the league, and they had the third best point differential in the conference behind Chicago and Detroit (+3.8). Lebron has another year of experience. They basically stood-pat, which means placing them fourth seems appropriate (bumping Boston in front of them). On the other hand, if they don’t get the contract situation with Varejao straightened out (he’s currently home in Brazil) I think they could be fighting for their play-off lives—he’s a huge part of what they do defensively. [47 wins, but with a huge Varejao asterisk]

(5) Washington- They finished last season as a .500 team with a negative point differential (-0.5). On the other hand, they were ravaged with injuries to star players (most notably Gilbert Arenas) and were doing really well before everyone got hurt. I’m tempted to think they’ll do really well this year with their stars back from injury, but then comes the news that Etan Thomas needed heart surgery. He’s not a star, but he did a bunch of the dirty work for them. Plus, who do I put them in front of? They could be a 50 win team or they could be a 40 win team, and neither would surprise me. I’ll split the difference and put them here. [45 wins, with another big asterisk]

(6) Miami- If I had any guts I’d predict them to miss the playoffs, but I think I’m too scared because of the big names. (Shaq! Wade! It’s the NBA playoffs!) They had a negative point differential last year (-0.9) yet somehow managed to grab 44 wins. They were also plagued by injuries, and I don’t see this year being any different. They didn’t get any younger. Wade is going to miss a chunk of games at the beginning of the season. We know Shaq is going to miss games at some point. They lost quality wing players in Kapono and Posey, and an out-of-retirement Penny Hardaway isn’t going to be the answer. Yet I still can’t bring myself to put them below any of the remaining teams. I’m a wuss. [43 wins, with two asterisks!!!]

Two of these Things are going to Belong

(7) Toronto- Last year was a break-out year for the Raptors, and I think the run continues. John Hollinger predicts a drop-off because so many Raptor players had career-best years last season, but I think that was more a function of their new style of play. Plus, as one of just five teams in the Eastern Conference who had a positive point differential last year, I think they can decline a little and still make the playoffs. There are some lingering injury problems (Bosh, etc.) that will probably slow them down to start the year, but I think they don’t drop any lower than the seventh seed. [43 wins]

(8) Orlando- Change the name—they should be called the Stan Van Gundy Magic, rather than the Orlando Magic. I wasn’t a huge fan of the roster moves they made this summer (letting Milicic walk, signing Lewis to a contract way above market value), but I am a huge fan of SVG. He’s a miracle worker (as is his brother for that matter) who was absolutely knee-capped by Riley in Miami. If Orlando hadn’t changed coaches over the summer I’d be picking them to drop out of the playoffs, but not with SVG at the helm. Plus, I was surprised to learn that they had a positive point differential (+0.8) last season despite having a sub-.500 record. I don’t know how SVG is going to make Adonal Foyle a prime-time player, but he will. [42 wins]

(9) Indiana- Jim O’Brien is another coach that I consider a miracle worker. Remember, the Sixers were 43-39 in 2004-05 under him before falling back to 38-44 the next year under Mo Cheeks with basically the same roster (not to mention his work with the Pierce/Walker Celtics before that). His presence on the Indiana sideline is probably good for at least five wins. I also think his preference for fronting post-players will cover up some of Troy Murphy’s defensive shortcomings by allowing Jermaine O’Neal to cover up things with his over-the-top help defense, while at the same time allowing Murphy to concentrate on his offensive strengths—the outside jumper which also happens to be a JOB favorite. [41 wins]

(10) Philadelphia- The Sixers were 26-21 over the last 47 games of last season. I think being above .500 for that much of the season is a good sign, even if it might be a bit overstated because of some “cheap” wins racked up over the last month. They replaced Joe Smith with Reggie Evans, but other than that they pretty much stayed still. And as a result, I’m putting them slightly above .500 for the upcoming season. [41 wins]

(11) New Jersey- Um, Sam, you do realize that New Jersey has Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, and Richard Jefferson? Yup, but I also realize that they basically have nothing else. Possibly Krstic’s return from injury or their pick-up of Jamal Magloire will make the difference, but last year NJ was a .500 ball-club with a negative point differential (-0.8). Not enough has changed, so I think this is the year they fall out of the playoffs. But it’ll be close. [40 wins]

(12) New York- The interior pairing of Curry and Randolph will be poor defensively, but effective offensively. People keep talking about them as two low-post players, but my impression of Randolph is that he was more of a high-post player. The big keys will be whether the guards get them the ball, Quentin Richardson stays healthy, and they find a way to get David Lee on the floor. Oh, and making sure that Isiah Thomas doesn’t harass anyone on the way to the arena (yes, that was a low blow, but not an undeserved one). They have talent (and they should with their payroll), but the key will be how they mesh that talent. [40 wins]

Wait, you’re telling me that you’re a Professional basketball team?

(13) Charlotte- They have a killer line-up of players at the swing positions (Gerald Wallace, Jason Richardson, Walter Herrmann, Matt Carroll, and Derek Anderson, and that isn’t even counting Adam Morrison, who isn’t good [update: and is now injured--which might add a few wins to their total], and Jared Dudley, a rookie). Unfortunately, they’re pretty thin everywhere else, especially with the injury to Sean May. Still, I don’t see them being any worse than last year, and they might even be a few games better because of the addition of Richardson, but another injury to a front court player (I’m looking at you, Mr. Okafor) would be devastating. [36 wins]

(14) Atlanta- They’re another team with a strong contingent of wing players, although not quite as deep at the position as Charlotte (Joe Johnson, Josh Smith, Josh Childress, and Marvin Williams should take all the minutes). But they’re also another team that’s pretty thin everywhere else. Al Horford helps, particularly as a presence on the boards and on the defensive end, but he isn’t enough to vault them into playoff contention. Maybe Acie Law IV is the answer at point guard, but I doubt it. They’ll have a better year than last year, but not by much. [34 wins]

(15) Milwaukee- I like Michael Redd (and really liked him on Team USA this summer), but I don’t like anything else on this squad. For the life of me, I don’t understand why they were so insistent on bringing back Mo Williams and Charlie Bell—I don’t think either of them is really going to help the Bucks win. Yi isn’t going to be a difference maker this year, and I just don’t see a whole bunch on the roster to get me excited. [27 wins]

League overview

I went and predicted results for every team in the league, and I'll share those predictions with you over the next few days (one day for the Eastern Conference, one day for the Western Conference). For now, I just wanted to share a few general thoughts I had about those predictions.

First, I made my predictions by thinking about each team, their finish last season, and the moves they made in the offseason, and then making an educated guess about how many games they would win. If someone is anal enough to go through and add up all the projected wins, that person will notice that I've predicted too many wins. Since one team needs to lose each game, the overall record of the league at the end of the regular season is always 1230-1230. My predictions give the league an overall record of 1251-1209 (626-604 Eastern Conference, 625-605 Western Conference). Clearly not actually possible. So sue me. It's the preseason--you're supposed to be overly optimistic for all the teams. (I was actually even more optimistic at first, but then I tried to adjust the numbers once I realized what I had done...and then I decided it wasn't worth the effort)

With that book-keeping out of the way, what insights do I think I gleaned from my look around the league?

1. The top teams are in the West. The top teams have been in the Western Conference for the last few years, so this observation wasn't exactly a revelation. This year I think the top five regular season teams will be in the West-- San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, and Utah. Those first four teams are the class of the league, and I think they'll all challenge the 60 win mark. While Utah is a step below, the Jazz are still as good as the top teams in the East over the course of the regular season (Chicago, Detroit, Boston).

2. Boston is the wild card. I don't expect Boston to be amazing over the course of the regular season because of the lack of depth, but the post-season will be a different story. Assuming the Big 3 (Garnett, Allen, Pierce) are healthy, they can play 40+ minutes a night in the post-season, making Boston's lack of depth a much less signficant factor. So don't judge Boston's title chances on their regular season record.

3. The top teams are in the West, but so are the worst teams. In predicting team records, I thought the top teams in the West would win close to 60 games while the worst teams in the West would win close to 20 games-- a 40 game spread. In the East, I thought the top teams would win close to 50 games while the worst teams would win close to 30 games-- a 20 game spread. Teams like Minnesota, Portland, Seattle, and the LA Clippers have no chance of even getting near the playoffs. In the East, I think Atlanta and Milwaukee are the only ones without a realistic chance of getting to the playoffs, and they'll still be closer than those teams from the West I just mentioned.

4. If you don't have a .500 record this season, you aren't getting into the playoffs. I think this year there are at least 10 teams in each conference that can legitimately claim a shot at having a .500 record. Maybe this is just a result of my total predicted wins being too high, but I do think that at least 8 teams in each conference will end up reaching that mark. No patsies in the playoffs this year.

5. The middle tier teams in the Eastern Conference are impossible to predict. Miami has injuries. Cleveland might be dealing with the absence of Varejao if his contract situation isn't resolved. Washington has players returning from injury, making it hard to figure out what last year's performance really means. I think one of these teams is likely to drop out of the playoffs, but I can't predict which one and I was too much of a pansy to actually make a prediction that included this belief.

6. Everyone' s favorite Cinderella team from last season, Golden State, is going to discover that the clock has hit midnight. They lost Jason Richardson and didn't really get anything in return. I don't see how they recover from that decision.


One final note-- Since I made my predictions last week, there have been a few trades (Antoine Walker to the Timberwolves) and injuries (Mike Bibby, Chucky Atkins) that probably would have impacted my predictions. I decided not to redo my predictions, but in a few cases I mention "major" events that have occurred since I made my initial predictions.

This scout stopped watching games five years ago

Sometimes I'm not sure about NBA scouts...

Reading the scout's comments on the Dallas Mavericks over at CNNSI.com, I noticed this statement:

The key for Dallas is that when you get into the playoffs and people are stopping your transition game by getting back on defense, you've got to be able to run the half-court offense. The Mavericks struggle in the half-court when they have to play there on a consistent basis.

If he was talking about the Mavericks of five years ago, I'd say "Right on!" But we're not. Last season Dallas was 28th in the league in pace factor--only two teams in the league averaged fewer possession per game than Dallas. Dallas was almost exclusively a half-court team last year, and playing that style they had the second most efficient offense (points per 100 possessions) in the league (to go with the league's fifth best defensive efficiency rating).

The Mavericks don't generally struggle in the half-court; they excel at it. Obviously not the case in last year's playoffs, but generally so.

That said, this Mavericks blogger thinks the scout was dead-on with his observation. I think the blogger was mostly agreeing with the second half of the scout's discussion (not included in the quote above) in which the scout talks about Dallas' failure to make adjustments in the series and create mismatches, but it's hard to be sure.

But what do I know, I'm not a professional...(not that my amateur status is going to keep my from playing a professional on my blog!)

Predictions galore!

Good thing I've already given you my prediction for the upcoming Sixers' season, otherwise you might think that I was just copying all these predictions that have started appearing.

About.com came out with their NBA season preview yesterday (or, at least, that's when I found it). Their Sixers preview really focuses on how the Sixers' use of "small-ball" really hurt them last year, and might again this year unless Mo Cheeks stays away from those line-ups. It's a point I've made before, so I obviously think they're on to something important. No projected record for the season, but I forgive them.

The Miami Herald also got in the Sixers preview swing of things (although I'm not really sure why--maybe they did previews for all 30 teams). They laud the Reggie Evans signing, point out the critical nature of Dalembert's injury status, and pan the short-term impact of the Sixers' draft picks. Solid review, but no real surprises for someone who's been reading this website. They predict the Sixers to only win 25-28 wins this season, so I disagree with them there.

Finally, Sports Illustrated posted a good chunk of their NBA preview on-line today (maybe all of it, but I don't think so--I haven't gotten my copy in the mail yet). You can see an opposing scout's view of the Sixers here, and a more overall preview of the Sixers here. The scout's opinions generally seem on target to me-- he discusses Dalembert's importance, but also his tendency to be out of position defensively; he discusses Evans strength as a rebounder; and he puts Igoudala's importance to the team and his talents in perspective. The overall preview doesn't say much other than that the Sixers are young. SI thinks the Sixers will bring up the bottom of the Atlantic division because they more or less stayed still while the other bad teams from last season (Celtics, Knicks) made splashy moves. No need to reiterate that I think the Sixers will be around .500 this year (although I guess I just did).

Anyway, those are the previews I came across in the last 24 hours. Check 'em out!

[Update: And now ESPN.com has out its season preview. Check out the Sixers' preview here. I'll give you a hint-- they don't think the Sixers are going to be very good.]

My Sixers prediction (WP48 version)

Well, after discussing my thoughts on the swing players that are going to get squeezed out of the Sixers' rotation in yesterday's post, it's time to move on to the main event.

To make things simpler on myself, for the purposes of making a Wins Produced based season prediction for the Sixers I made the assumption that none of the Sixers' rookies were going to play at all this year.* Why did I make this assumption? Two reasons: (1) I don't have WP48 numbers for the rookies, and (2) I have no good way to predict them. I'll make the assumption that the rookies will have the same WP48 as the player's that they take playing time away from. Probably not a perfect prediction, but it's as likely to benefit the Sixers as to harm them.

With those assumptions in mind, what did I predict (Reggie Evans WP48 from here, all other WP48 stats from here)?

The likely scenario (given in the form of [player] [WP48] (mins/gm) = [WP]):

• Andre Miller [.161] (35) = 9.63
• Andre Igoudala [.195] (37) = 12.33
• Samuel Dalembert [.178] (30) = 9.12
• Reggie Evans [.216] (30) = 11.07
• Kyle Korver [.047] (30) = 2.41
• Willie Green [-.120] (23) = -4.72
• Calvin Booth [-.010] (15) = -.26
• Shavlik Randolph [.158] (11) = 2.97
• Louis Amundson [.061] (10) = 1.04
• Louis Williams [.105] (10) = 1.79
• Rodney Carney [-.105] (6) = -1.08
• Kevin Ollie [.015] (3) = .08
• 
  
• Total = 44.39 wins!

[note: do I really think that Calvin Booth will play 15 minutes per game? No, but with Randolph coming back from injury and Amundson only having played 90 minutes all of last year, it seemed like the safe prediction to make.]

The best-case scenario (I'm not optimistic enough to predict that the Sixers drop Willie Green from the rotation, so for my best-case scenario I assume that the Sixers drop Carney, Ollie, and Booth from the rotation, play our starters slightly heavier minutes, and Randolph is healthy enough to pick up the other big man minutes that open up):

• Andre Miller [.161] (35) = 9.63
• Andre Igoudala [.195] (37) = 12.33
• Samuel Dalembert [.178] (33) = 10.03
  
• Reggie Evans [.216] (33) = 12.18
• Kyle Korver [.047] (33) = 2.65
• Willie Green [-.120] (23) = -4.72
• Shavlik Randolph [.158] (20) = 5.40
• Louis Amundson [.061] (10) = 1.04
• Louis Williams [.105] (16) = 2.87
• 
  
• Total = 51.41 wins!

So there you have it. Based on WP48 and my predictions about playing time, I predict the Sixers to win between 44 and 52 games. I guess I should have also done a worse-case scenario prediction, but what' the fun in that?

In truth, my gut prediction (based on comparing the Sixers roster to the rosters of other teams) is that the Sixers will win between 40 and 42 games. I'll be really happy if the WP48 method turns out to be a better indicator of success, but I'm not sure I completely buy it. I'm already more optimistic than most predictions, and WP48 tells me I should be even more optimistic.

On the other hand, Dalembert's ongoing foot issues is making me more pessimistic.

That said, it'll be interesting to come back to this prediction over the course of the season-- looking at how actual playing time differs from my predictions, and how a WP48 prediction would have differed based on that information.

Tomorrow: Some general observations about the competitiveness of the league for this coming season.

*Yes, I know, this assumption contradicts what I said yesterday about Carney being squeezed out of the rotation in favor of Thaddeus Young. What do you want from me-- consistency?

Who isn't going to get playing time?

For my Sixers' prediction, I thought I'd take WP48 numbers for the Sixers' players and then apply them based on my predictions of playing times for the various players on the roster to get at a total Wins Produced prediction.*

In trying to predict playing times, I realized that the numbers just don't add up. Someone who's expecting to get at least a decent chunk of time is probably going to spend most of the season sitting on the bench.

In particular, looking at the wing players (shooting guards and small forwards) on the Sixers' roster, I don't see how everyone is going to get playing time. The articles I've been reading talk about Andre Igoudala, Kyle Korver, Rodney Carney, Willie Green, and Thaddeus Young getting time on the wings, not to mention a few articles that talk about Louis Williams getting some playing time at the shooting guard position.

That's five players (excluding Williams) competing for 96 minutes of playing time each game (48 at each position). You can pencil Igoudala in for 35+ minutes a game (he was actually at 40/game last year), and Korver will almost certainly get 30 min/gm again as the sixth man. Once those two players are accounted for, we're really talking about 30 minutes of playing time (at most) being divided among three players.

Divide the time evenly and each player is looking at only 10 mins/gm. Well, Willie Green played 23 minutes a game last year and Carney played around 14 mins/gm. Just between the two of them, all the remaining available minutes are used up, leaving Young, our "prized" rookie, with no playing time.

As discussed yesterday, the Sixers' use of a small line-up means that more time will be available for these players (as evidenced by Green and Carney combining to play more than the remaining available small forward/shooting guard minutes last season). But the small line-up doesn't help the Sixers win games, so I don't think using it just to give players playing time is a very good idea (i.e. it's a very bad idea).

All of which circles us back around to the original point-- the numbers don't add up, and someone who is expected to see time this year is going to find themselves buried on the bench. Who's it going to be? I don't know, but my guess is that Carney will eventually find himself as the odd man out. The Sixers' coaches and management have an inexplicable love affair with Willie Green, so I imagine he'll get at least 23 mins/gm again. The battle for the remaining 10 mins/gm will then come down to Young and Carney, and I don't think Carney has shown enough to keep the Sixers' coaches from wanting to try out their shiny new toy (that would be the rookie, in case my metaphor wasn't clear).

Of course, since I don't think Green or Carney are good, and I don't expect much out of Young as a 19-year old rookie, I'm not sure it matters who the coaches end up playing for these minutes. But it does make for interesting speculation.


*(The reason WoW has given for not making specific predictions for each team is that it's too hard to guess how coaches will divide playing time for each team, but I figured it wouldn't be too hard to do for just one team. Having tried to get inside a coaches' head for one team, I can certainly understand why they didn't want to do it for 30 teams.)

Igoudala, Miller, Dalembert, and some guys off the street

It's preview week here at Sixerpride!

Later in the week I'll give my specific predictions for the Sixers and the NBA as a whole, but for now we'll start by looking at the Sixers preview developed by the good folks over at the Wages of Wins.

I think the preview can be summarized pretty easily: Igoudala, Miller, and Dalembert are good, and the rest of the team is pretty worthless. Well, that's not entirely true since Reggie Evans has a very strong WP48 score, but it was true for last year's team. And with the exception of the aforementioned Evans, this year's team is pretty similar to last year's team.

Of course, since last year's team was above .500 for the second half of the season that statement isn't the death knell for the Sixers that most commentators have been treating it as.

WoW also makes two other observations about the Sixers that I think are spot on.

First, the Sixers played Willie Green and Rodney Carney significant minutes last year, and neither player is good (in fact, they're bad). Unfortunately, based on the articles I've been reading, it sounds like both players are going to be getting significant minutes again this year-- with Willie Green likely starting and Carney getting minutes as his back-up. It's not clear why the Sixers' coaches and management are so high on these two players, but I guess that's just something we need to live with as fans.

Second, the Sixers played at least 800 minutes last season with one of our small forwards (Korver or Carney) playing as the power forward in a small line-up. Neither of these players is capable of rebounding at the level needed from a power forward, so these small line-ups hurt the Sixers. Again, based on the articles I've been reading, it looks like Mo Cheeks is planning to use some small line-ups again this year (although possibly with Thaddeus Young as the power forward). Hopefully Mo Cheeks will decide against this strategy, but I'm not holding my breath.

All in all, Wins Produced gives a much more optimistic picture for the upcoming Sixers season than most other predictions. WoW doesn't give a firm prediction, but does expect the Sixers to end up with more than 35 wins.

As I've mentioned before, my personal prediction is much more in-line with this more optimistic view. But that's a story for tomorrow's (and the rest of the week's) posts.

Not all rookies are created equal

A couple of days ago I was browsing through some recaps of the NBA preseason games against teams from the EuroLeague, and I came across the recap of the Rockets-Panathinaikos game.

One line really caught my attention:

Rookie Luis Scola scored 17 points[.]

I know that Scola is in his first season in the NBA, so he's considered a rookie by the league, but do we really need to see him described that way over the course of the year?

I mean, he's 27 years old (the same age, as a I recently discovered, as the Sixers' "grizzled veteran" Reggie Evans). He's been a key member of Argentina's gold medal winning team, and he's been widely considered the best player in Europe for the last couple of years by NBA scouts. And from what I saw of him in the FIBA Tournament of the Americas, he's the real deal.

Should we really be evaluating his season the same way that we'll be evaluating Thaddeus Young's season (to take just one home team rookie as an example)? I don't think so.

I know that Kevin Durant is everyone's choice to win rookie of the year (especially now that Greg Oden is injured), but I think my money will be on Luis Scola actually being the best "rookie" this year.

[Over at ESPN.com, David Thorpe gives his take on the rookie class. It's an Insider article, but currently available to everyone, so check it out now before it goes back behind the wall. The short version: Durant is favored to win rookie of the year, followed by Scola and the other non-rookie rookie, Juan Carlos Navarro. The Sixers' rookies are both listed as "others to watch" which seems to stand for "don't bother to watch" since 16 rookies are listed before them!]

CBS Sportsline thinks the Sixers should have tanked

I told you I'd keep posting on season previews of the Sixers, otherwise I'd have just let this one from CBS Sportsline fall by the wayside.

One of the least informative previews I've ever seen in any forum. In fact, calling it a preview is probably being a bit too generous since all it does is talk about how not tanking last season was a terrible idea.

The writer predicts 21 wins for the Sixers, but doesn't explain why he thinks they'll be worse than last year so you're left to guess at his rationale. I'm guessing that his rationale is that 21 wins is how many John Hollinger predicted, but maybe I'm being too cynical.

Thanks, CBS Sports. I'm a much better informed Sixers fan thanks to your contribution.

At least you gave me an opportunity to be snarky.

Some more previews and predictions

I came across a nice preview of the Sixers by Marc Narducci. Nothing staggering, but he gives a nice run-down of the players likely to be competing for playing time this season. I will just pull out one paragraph from the preview to comment on:

Dalembert will benefit from the team's offseason trade for rugged power forward Reggie Evans. He will provide next to nothing on offense but averaged 7.0 rebounds in 17.1 minutes for the Nuggets last season and could nearly double that average with the Sixers. Most important, he'll take some heat off -- and maybe fouls away from -- Dalembert by offering physical help on defense.

I absolutely think Reggie Evans will help, but I'm not sure he'll really help Dalembert stay out of foul trouble. After all, my impression is that Dalembert gets most of his fouls because he's late on rotations. Not sure how Evans corrects that problem, unless he hacks the man before Dalembert can get there!

Also, John Hollinger has posted his predictions for the season over at ESPN.com. The actually write-ups are behind the Insider subscription wall so I haven't read them, but he projects the Sixers to be last in the Eastern Conference with just 21 wins (and just one win better than the Clippers who he projects to have the worst record in the league). I think the Sixers will do substantially better than that, but I'd be curious to know what Holllinger's reasoning is for predicting such a terrible finish. If anyone reading has access to insider, let me know!

And the first set of rankings is out!

Hard on the heels of my post yesterday, Marc Stein released his first NBA power rankings of the year. (I admit, he didn't release them because of my post; he released them because today was media day around the NBA and training camps are starting)

Not surprisingly, he had the Sixers ranked towards the bottom of the pack--27th out of 30, to be specific. As I said yesterday, I think a number of the prognosticators are going to be surprised by the Sixers this season. Of the teams that Stein had ranked ahead of the Sixers, my initial reaction is to expect the Sixers to finish ahead of the Hawks, Kings, Knicks, Trailblazers, and Sonics. I also wouldn't be surprised to see them finish ahead of the Bobcats and Bucks. If all that comes to pass, the Sixers would be one of the top 20 teams in the NBA. Obviously nothing to write home about, but substantially better than what Stein is predicting.

I'll wait until training camp is over to make my official predictions for the year, but I'll give my thoughts on the predictions from mainstream publications as a I come across them.

Does last year mean anything?

An article in the Inquirer raises the question: does last year's end-of-season success actually mean anything for this coming season?

As the article says:

King believes the players will carry the momentum from the last 26 games of the season, when the Sixers went 17-9.

Normally, I'm not one for putting much stock into a strong end to a season. If you keep playing hard, you get some easy wins over teams that have checked out for the season. Considering the allegations of tanking that floated around the end of this season (so that teams would have a better shot at winning the draft lottery and getting Oden or Durant), this past season seems like it would be a candidate for having even more of these sorts of wins occurring than most years. You can also normally get a cheap win over a playoff team that has clinched its position and is taking its last game or two easy. Players with lingering injuries who might have played through pain earlier in the season often will also shut it down for the remainder of the season if their team isn't going anywhere.

The other reason for not normally putting much stock in late season surges is because there is often enough roster turnover before the start of the next season to make the performance of last year's team not particularly helpful. In the case of the Sixers, there has not been that much roster change so I think the end-of-season performance might give some indication of how they'll perform, particularly since the roster went through such major changes halfway through last season. (Basically, the Sixers added Reggie Evans and Calvin Booth in the off-season to replace Joe Smith and Steven Hunter. I like the addition of Evans, but for now I'll treat it as a fairly equal substitution.)

Andre Miller joined the Sixers on Tuesday, December 26. Then, Chris Webber was released before the Sixers game on January 12 (I don't remember if he was released the day before or not, but he was not on the roster for the game that night). Rather than look at just the last 26 games of last season, I think we can get a better sense of the Sixers by looking at all the games they played since those changes occurred. This method might underestimate them a little bit because it includes games when the new roster was trying to figure out how to play with one another, but it also might overestimate them a little bit because it includes wins in those late season, meaningless games. So with all those caveats, what happened since those changes?

Including the January 12, 2007 game against the Bucks, the Sixers went 26-21 after adding Miller and dropping Webber. Not too shabby considering their overall record. If you break the numbers out by month, you see that the Sixers went 6-6 in January, 5-6 in February, 9-6 in March, and 6-3 in April. Looking at these numbers, I see two plausible scenarios. First, you could say that the Sixers immediately became a .500 team, and then they really came together once they had the days-off to practice around the all-star break. In this scenario, the Sixers' record in March and April (a combined 15-9) is the true indication of their actual ability. This story seems to be the one that the Sixers management and coaching staff believe (or, at least, the one that they're telling to the media). The other scenario is that the Sixers are legitimately a .500 team, as indicated by their record in January and February, and that the better showing in March and April was the result of other teams shutting it down for the season.

Which do I believe? I probably lean a little more towards the latter story, but, in one of the world's great cop-outs, I think the truth is probably in-between the two scenarios. Quite frankly, either scenario would be really exciting. In both cases the Sixers project to being at least .500 this coming year; and in the Eastern Conference, .500 makes you a play-off team. I doubt any of the experts will predict the Sixers to make the playoffs this year, but it shouldn't really come as a surprise if they do.

All of a sudden, I'm a lot more excited for this upcoming NBA season.