Tuesday, October 23, 2007

My Sixers prediction (WP48 version)

Well, after discussing my thoughts on the swing players that are going to get squeezed out of the Sixers' rotation in yesterday's post, it's time to move on to the main event.

To make things simpler on myself, for the purposes of making a Wins Produced based season prediction for the Sixers I made the assumption that none of the Sixers' rookies were going to play at all this year.* Why did I make this assumption? Two reasons: (1) I don't have WP48 numbers for the rookies, and (2) I have no good way to predict them. I'll make the assumption that the rookies will have the same WP48 as the player's that they take playing time away from. Probably not a perfect prediction, but it's as likely to benefit the Sixers as to harm them.

With those assumptions in mind, what did I predict (Reggie Evans WP48 from here, all other WP48 stats from here)?

The likely scenario (given in the form of [player] [WP48] (mins/gm) = [WP]):
  • Andre Miller [.161] (35) = 9.63
  • Andre Igoudala [.195] (37) = 12.33
  • Samuel Dalembert [.178] (30) = 9.12
  • Reggie Evans [.216] (30) = 11.07
  • Kyle Korver [.047] (30) = 2.41
  • Willie Green [-.120] (23) = -4.72
  • Calvin Booth [-.010] (15) = -.26
  • Shavlik Randolph [.158] (11) = 2.97
  • Louis Amundson [.061] (10) = 1.04
  • Louis Williams [.105] (10) = 1.79
  • Rodney Carney [-.105] (6) = -1.08
  • Kevin Ollie [.015] (3) = .08

  • Total = 44.39 wins!
[note: do I really think that Calvin Booth will play 15 minutes per game? No, but with Randolph coming back from injury and Amundson only having played 90 minutes all of last year, it seemed like the safe prediction to make.]

The best-case scenario (I'm not optimistic enough to predict that the Sixers drop Willie Green from the rotation, so for my best-case scenario I assume that the Sixers drop Carney, Ollie, and Booth from the rotation, play our starters slightly heavier minutes, and Randolph is healthy enough to pick up the other big man minutes that open up):

  • Andre Miller [.161] (35) = 9.63
  • Andre Igoudala [.195] (37) = 12.33
  • Samuel Dalembert [.178] (33) = 10.03
  • Reggie Evans [.216] (33) = 12.18
  • Kyle Korver [.047] (33) = 2.65
  • Willie Green [-.120] (23) = -4.72
  • Shavlik Randolph [.158] (20) = 5.40
  • Louis Amundson [.061] (10) = 1.04
  • Louis Williams [.105] (16) = 2.87

  • Total = 51.41 wins!
So there you have it. Based on WP48 and my predictions about playing time, I predict the Sixers to win between 44 and 52 games. I guess I should have also done a worse-case scenario prediction, but what' the fun in that?

In truth, my gut prediction (based on comparing the Sixers roster to the rosters of other teams) is that the Sixers will win between 40 and 42 games. I'll be really happy if the WP48 method turns out to be a better indicator of success, but I'm not sure I completely buy it. I'm already more optimistic than most predictions, and WP48 tells me I should be even more optimistic.

On the other hand, Dalembert's ongoing foot issues is making me more pessimistic.

That said, it'll be interesting to come back to this prediction over the course of the season-- looking at how actual playing time differs from my predictions, and how a WP48 prediction would have differed based on that information.

Tomorrow: Some general observations about the competitiveness of the league for this coming season.

*Yes, I know, this assumption contradicts what I said yesterday about Carney being squeezed out of the rotation in favor of Thaddeus Young. What do you want from me-- consistency?

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