As I responded in the comments, I agree that the expectation is for a top three pick to be a major impact player, but I also think that history proves this expectation to be too optimistic. Going back over the last 15 years (to Shawn Bradley's draft), the top three picks in the NBA draft have been as follows:
- 1993- Chris Webber, Shawn Bradley (the cause of all this ruckus), Anfernee Hardaway
- 1994- Glenn Robinson, Jason Kidd, Grant Hill
- 1995- Joe Smith, Antonio McDyess, Jerry Stackhouse
- 1996- Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby, Shareef Abdur-Rahim
- 1997- Tim Duncan, Keith Van Horn, Chauncey Billups
- 1998- Michael Olowokandi, Mike Bibby, Raef Lafrentz
- 1999- Elton Brand, Steve Francis, Baron Davis
- 2000- Kenyon Martin, Stromile Swift, Darius Miles
- 2001- Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Pau Gasol
- 2002- Yao Ming, Jay Williams, Mike Dunleavy
- 2003- Lebron James, Darko Milicic, Carmelo Anthony
- 2004- Dwight Howard, Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon
- 2005- Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, Deron Williams
- 2006- Andrea Bargnani, LaMarcus Aldridge, Adam Morrison
- 2007- Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Al Horford
The odds of getting a major impact player at the top of the NBA draft are better than at any other spot in the draft, but history shows that even at those draft spots getting a major impact player is no sure thing.
3 comments:
These are the players who have not had good enough careers to live up to their top-three purchase...though I must admit I don't know who came behind them that might have done better:
. 1993- Shawn Bradley
. 1994-
. 1995- Joe Smith
. 1996- Marcus Camby, Shareef Abdur-Rahim
. 1997- Keith Van Horn, Chauncey Billups (needs another year of good play to make up for his first 5 years)
. 1998- Michael Olowokandi, Mike Bibby, Raef Lafrentz
. 1999-
. 2000- Stromile Swift, Darius Miles
. 2001- Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Paul Gasol
. 2002- Mike Dunleavy
. 2003- Darko Milicic - It is not too early to judge Darko. He has been a huge disappointment based on how high was drafted and how little playing time he has earned. He has time to left in his career to get off of this list but he has a long way to go.
By your count, 16 out of 33 players drafted in the top three (from the 11 years you looked at) did not accomplish enough to be considered major impact players. That's almost 50%. Based on those numbers, don't you think it's safe to say that expecting a top three pick to be a major impact player is unreasonable? There probably are three major impact players in each draft, but correctly identifying them is really just a 50-50 proposition.
I guess the problem is one of managing expectations. The teams and sports analysts constantly speak of what these players will do to help their team and what a huge impact they will have. Now I will be a more savvy consumer… it would be helpful if ESPN et. al. and sports columnists toned down their rhetoric and prepared fans for what, as you pointed out, is really only a 50-50 bet.
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