365 days later (or so)

Apparently, the one year anniversary of the Iverson trade was the signal for the pundits to come out of the woodwork and make snide comments about the Sixers. Two recent comments in particular rankled me a bit because they seemed to reflect a real lack of research.

First, over at ESPN.com, Marc Stein slammed what the Sixers got in return for Iverson. What made it even more bizarre to me was that he recognized that the Nuggets haven't had an amazing record with Iverson, but still talked as if the Nuggets had robbed the Sixers.

Then, over at CNNSI.com, Jack McMallum describes the Sixers as a team "playing over its head" in his Christmas list column.

It seems to me that both comments reflect the same basic bias-- that Iverson is a superstar and that the Sixers must be terrible and must have gotten fleeced in the trade because they didn't get a superstar in return. It seems to me that the way to evaluate a trade is to see which team got better as a result of the trade, not comparing the "names" that each team got in the trade. And on that basis, I think its pretty clear that the Sixers at least broke even (and maybe even got the better end of the trade).

Let's take a look at how the trade impacted the performance of both teams.

First, the Sixers. In the 2005-06 season with Iverson, the Sixers were 38-44 (.463). In 2006-07 after the Iverson trade (he was suspended before the trade, so those games aren't particularly informative), the Sixers were 30-29. After Iverson was traded and after Webber was bought out (two weeks later), the Sixers went 26-21. This season through 25 games the Sixers were 10-15 (.400). All told, the Sixers are 40-44 (.476) since the Iverson trade (or 36-36 (.500) since getting rid of both Iverson and Webber).

Next, the Nuggets. In the 2005-06 season, the Nuggets were 44-38 (.537). In 2006-07, before the trade, the Nuggets were 14-9 (.609). The trade happened one game into Carmelo Anthony's 15 game suspension. Excluding those 14 games (in which the Nuggets went 6-8), the Nuggets went 25-20 (.556) after the Iverson trade. This season through 25 games the Nuggets were 15-10 (.600). All told, the Nuggets are 40-30 (.571) since the Iverson trade (excluding the games for which Carmelo was suspended).

To recap: Before the trade, the Sixers were a slightly below average team (.463). After the trade, the Sixers have been a slightly below average team (.476). Before the trade, the Nuggets were an above average, but not great, team (.552). After the trade, the Nuggets have been an above average, but not great, team (.571).

Once you account for the fact that the Nuggets supporting cast has also improved, notably Marcus Camby has been healthy and was named Defensive Player of the Year last season, and the salary cap space that the Sixers will gain after this season as a result of the trade, then I don't see how you can say the Nuggets made out better than the Sixers in this deal. Even without accounting for these things, I still don't see how the Sixers got fleeced.

I also don't see how the Sixers can still be considered to be playing over their heads after playing at this level for the equivalent of an entire season. But I'm not holding my breath for the pundits to actually notice.

Reggie Evans, Philadelphia. Philadelphia, Reggie Evans.

What do I think of the Sixers' acquisition of Reggie Evans (and the rights to Rickey Sanchez) from the Denver Nuggets in return for Steven Hunter and Bobby Jones? I can tell tell you in three short words: I like it. Want a few more words? I like it a lot!

The Sixers really needed a power forward who could provide rebounding and solid interior defense, and Reggie Evans fits the bill. As the Philadelphia Inquirer put it:

The 6-foot-8, 245-pound Evans will give the Sixers some much-needed toughness in the interior. Last season, he led the NBA in rebounds per 48 minutes (19.7). Evans averaged 7.0 rebounds in 17.1 minutes per game.

Even more impressive, Reggie Evans had the best rebound rate in the NBA in 2004-05 (23.9%), 2005-06 (21.4%), and 2006-07 (23.0%). Also, he isn't a rebounder on just one side of the ball. He gets both offensive and defensive rebounds, averaging 5.5 offensive rebounds and 10.8 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes.

As for the non-rebounding portion of his defense, I recall him being a very physical defender (although not necessarily a very good defender). His average of 5.1 fouls per 40 minutes supports this observation about his defense. It also helps explain why he has been traditionally overlooked--coaches are reluctant to keep him on the floor because he gets into foul trouble (and because coaches generally don't like to play non-scorers, despite all the talk about the importance of defense). I say leave him on the floor until he fouls out. If we can get 30 minutes a night out of him as our starting power forward and get his rebound production for that amount of time, then I think accepting a few extra fouls as the price for his production is a good trade. Yes, I'd prefer fewer fouls, but you take players as they are, not as you want them to be!

For what it's worth, Win Score metrics also indicate this trade was a steal for the Sixers. The numbers available show that both Steven Hunter and Bobby Jones were below average players last season. Reggie Evans, on the other hand, was well above average with a WP48 of .300 (.100 is average for all NBA players). The proof is in the pudding, but for now I'm very enthusiastic about this trade for the Sixers. Now we just need to hope that the Sixers' coaches are smart enough to take advantage of the rebounding machine they've been given.

The Sixers make a move

I'm still on the road, but I caught this tidbit:

Steven Hunter and Bobby Jones to Denver for Reggie Evans and Ricky Sanchez. Plus, the Sixers signed Calvin Booth.

I'll comment on the trade once I get to Anchorage.