Finger injury

I hurt my right pinky finger playing basketball last night. Nothing too serious (probably a bad jam, but one of the guys said it looked like the finger very briefly popped out of joint before popping back into place). However, with my pinky taped to the finger next to it, I'm finding it a bit hard to type quickly. My plan is to post my thoughts on the "Elton Brand chase" tonight or tomorrow, but then I'll probably hold off until next week to finish off my evaluation of the Sixers' off-season moves (resigning our restricted free agents and filling out the roster).

Help from the Draft

The 2008 NBA draft was held on June 26, 2008. The Sixers had only one pick in the draft, having traded our second round pick to the Utah Jazz. Picking 16th, the odds of landing a useful player were fairly low, but we'd managed to find Thaddeus Young at the 12th spot last year so there was hope.

As everyone reading this blog probably knows at this point, the Sixers selected Marreese Speights, a PF/C from Florida, with our selection. I freely admit that I knew nothing about him at the time, other than that there had been some rumors that he was not a particularly hard worker. But even the people he made that claim also said that he was a very talented player.

So will Speights help the Sixers this year? No way to really know until the season begins, but Professor Berri helpfully evaluated the play of all the featured rookies at the Las Vegas Summer League using Win Score (a version of Wins Produced). Now, he spends most of his post explaining that the sample size from summer league is so small that the resulting standard deviation makes the results somewhat (mostly) meaningless, but I'm going to ignore that part of the piece and just look at the (meaningless) numbers he puts up for Speights.

As this table shows, the average WS48 for an NBA center last season was 10.993. Speights posted a 10.7, putting him just under the average mark for a center. If that mark represents Speights's true ability for the year (a big if), then I think he'll help us this year. From another of Professor Berri's posts, we know approximately that WP48 = 0.104 + 1.621*PAWSmin. Thus, Speights's 10.7 WS48 --> PAWS48 = -0.3 --> PAWS/min = -.00625 --> WP48 = .094. Remember, average WP48 in the NBA = .100.

Erich Doerr's analysis (based on looking at the college PAWS of top prospects) is also very bullish on Speights's chances of being a productive NBA player.

To have a rookie selected 16th come in and be able to produce at close to the NBA average in his first season is a huge help. So while Speights obviously does not help with the Sixers' need to improve at shooting guard, the preliminary results indicate that he will help strengthen the Sixers' bench. All in all, a successful draft.

(Completely off topic, but one of the players I thought was being highly underrated in the run-up to the draft was Joey Dorsey from Memphis. The Rockets selected him in the second round, and the results from summer league look promising. Go Joey!)

Up next: The Elton Brand Chase.

Off-season moves

The other week, we had looked at the Sixers' roster as of the end of last season in order to identify the Sixers' needs going into this off-season. I summarized my analysis in this fashion:

In general, I think the numbers show that the Sixers' most glaring need was to improve the shooting guard position. Resigning Igoudala also was a clear off-season priority (although, as noted, not for all-star money). Simply accomplishing these two goals would have made the off-season a solid success, most likely ensuring a return to the playoffs. Beyond that, putting together a bench that inspires a bit more confidence was probably the next most urgent need. Resigning Louis Williams seems likely to help in that regard, but he's not nearly as certain to help as I think most people believe (including me before I did this analysis).

The Sixers have now made a number of moves, so it's time to see how these moves match up with the needs we identified. To start with, I think that the Sixers' moves this off-season can be grouped into four general categories: (1) The Draft, (2) The Elton Brand chase, (3) Resigning Our Restricted Free Agents, and (4) Rounding Out the Roster. I'll take each off these categories one at a time over the next couple of days.

In the mean time, I saw that Jason Smith injured himself the other day (ACL tear) and is out for an indefinite period of time. I obviously don't wish injury on anyone. At the same time, since our analysis from the other day indicated that Smith did not help the team much last season, but was still likely to get signficant playing time based on the general perception of his play, his injury (and unavailability to play) could actually be a slight boon to our chances this year. Of course, he was obviously just a rookie last season and therefore could have improved this year, so maybe I'm being too hard.

Up next: The Draft.

Thanks for nothing, Chicago

Well, re-signing Andre Igoudala probably just got a whole bunch tougher.

The Chicago Bulls recently came to an agreement with Luol Deng, their star small-forward, on a six year contract that will pay him at least $71 million, and up to $80 million if all the incentives are met. If you're keeping track at home, that's a contract worth somewhere between slightly less than $12 million/year and slightly more than $13 million/year.

I don't think Deng is worth that much money. And I also don't think that Andre Igoudala should command that much money, but I am sure that he (and his agent) will look at that contract and say "That's what I deserve."

And based on the numbers, it's hard to argue that Igoudala deserves less than Deng.

Looking at PER, Igoudala has a 19.05 rating (6th best small forward in the NBA) while Deng has a 17.07 rating (15th). Adjusted +/- gives Igoudala a +4.95, while it gives Deng a +3.88.

And finally, WP48 gives Igoudala a score of .172 for the year. Unfortunately, I don't think Professor Berri has posted the year end WP48 for the Chicago Bulls. However, 13 games into the season Deng had a WP48 of .147. That's a pretty small sample size, so for now I'm not sure that we can rely on WP48 in this analysis.

Even setting aside WP48, Igoudala compares well to Deng. And I'm sure that Igoudala's agent is making sure that the Sixers know it. And it'll be a little difficult for the Sixers to claim that the Bulls are paying Deng for potential, since they've both in the league for four years and Igoudala (Jan. 1984) is less than 1.5 years older than Deng (April 1985).

The one factor weighing in the Sixers favor is that most people seem to consider this a down year for Luol Deng after his "break-out" performance last season. (Many chalk up his decline this season to the fact that he was injured for a good chunk of the season, missing 19 games). For instance, Deng posted a very strong .237 WP48 last season. The difference between Deng's peformance last season and this season mostly seems to be a function of his shooting percentage (with this past season being a return to closer to his career norm), but the perception that Deng is really the player that he was last season (and not the good, but not quite as good player from this season) might be the best hope the Sixers have for convincing Igoudala that he should accept less money than Deng received.

(You can look at Deng's averages here, and let me know in the comments if you'd interpret them differently.)

I very much want the Sixers to re-sign Igoudala, but it sure seems like it's going to be much harder than I'd hoped. First we've needed to deal with the emerging threat of offers from European teams to restricted free agents. Now we need to deal with the benchmark that Chicago's offer will set in Igoudala's mind. And in my mind, that means re-signing Igoudala to a reasonable contract just got a whole lot harder.

Thanks for nothing, Chicago.

[Update: Another take on the Igoudala situation I just came across, although it looks like it was posted two weeks ago.]

Technical Difficulties

Well, not really. But I'm heading out to do some backcountry hiking in Denali National Park this weekend (leaving after work today) and preparation for the trip has taken up most of my free time the last couple of days so I haven't gotten around to my follow-up posts on the Sixers' off-season moves. I promise that I'll write those posts as soon as I get back from my trip.

Looking at the Sixers' Roster

After the NBA Finals, my plan had been to take a look at the Sixers' roster using PER, WP48, ,and Adjusted +/- to determine where the Sixers stood and determine what their biggest needs were. Then I was going to propose ways for them to get better this off-season.

Obviously, I didn't get around to it right away. And in the meantime, the Sixers have made a few minor moves. (What? You wouldn't consider the Elton Brand signing a minor move...?)

That said, I thought it would still be a useful exercise, and now we'll also be able to evaluate the moves the Sixers have made this offseason in the context of the needs we identify.

For now, let's just look at the Sixers' roster as it stood at the end of last season (I've posted these numbers for the starters before-- in the posts comparing the Sixers to the Clippers):

(by the way-- if anyone knows how to import a spreadsheet into blogger, please let me know. Typing everything in neat columns isn't really my forte!)

PER Adj +/- WP48 Status

Andre Miller 18.51 -8.70 .167 signed
Willie Green 12.91 -0.75 -.019 signed
Andre Igoudala 19.05 4.95 .172 restricted free agent
Reggie Evans 11.05 2.75 .143 signed
Samuel Dalembert 15.62 0.73 .197 signed
Louis Williams 16.71 -7.68 .080 restricted free agent
Thaddeus Young 16.58 12.33 .099 signed
Jason Smith 10.76 -1.37 -.039 signed
Louis Amundson 7.59 n/a -.172 free agent
Herbert Hill n/a n/a n/a free agent
Shavlik Randolph 15.05 n/a .029 free agent
Kevin Ollie 9.81 n/a .017 free agent
Rodney Carney 12.15 1.54 -.032 signed
Calvin Booth n/a n/a -.033 signed

So looking at these numbers for the Sixers' roster at the start of the off-season, what do we see?

First, these stats don't agree on the value of our players. Some players rank high on PER, but low on adjusted +/-. Others low on PER, but high on WP48. So it isn't clear just from putting up these numbers how the roster should be evaluated. Unless, of course, you believe unreservedly in one metric, in which case things are much easier for you.

That said, I think it's a safe assumption that a player who rates well on all three metrics is a good player. On that basis, it seems clear that Andre Igoudala and Samuel Dalembert were the Sixers' cornerstones last season, ranking above average on all three metrics. That said, neither one really breaks into all-star territory on any of the three metrics.

As far as the other starters go, Andre Miller and Reggie Evans were either good (on two metrics each) or bad (on one metric each) depending on which metric you rely on. For now, I'll go with the majority of metrics and view the Sixers as being solid at both of these positions. Willie Green, on the other hand, is considered below average (or bad) by all three metrics.

Looking at the bench, we can see that Thaddeus Young had a very good rookie season. Beyond that, the results are mixed, at best. Louis Williams is either slightly above average (PER), slightly below average (WP48), or downright crappy. Rodney Carney was either below average (PER, WP48) or above average (adjusted +/-). Jason Smith was poor, despite the relatively positive reviews he received during the season. And the rest of the roster didn't really play enough to be evaluated, although Shavlik Randolph seems to be the most promising from the end of the bench crew.

In general, I think the numbers show that the Sixers' most glaring need was to improve the shooting guard position. Resigning Igoudala also was a clear off-season priority (although, as noted, not for all-star money). Simply accomplishing these two goals would have made the off-season a solid success, most likely ensuring a return to the playoffs. Beyond that, putting together a bench that inspires a bit more confidence was probably the next most urgent need. Resigning Louis Williams seems likely to help in that regard, but he's not nearly as certain to help as I think most people believe (including me before I did this analysis).

And I guess I should note that if you think adjusted +/- is clearly the best indicator, then strengthening the point guard position, and not the shooting guard position, is actually the Sixers' biggest need.

So that would have been the doctor's prescription for this off-season. In my next post, I'll take a look at how the Sixers' actual moves (so far) have matched (or not matched) these needs.

Europe.

It's a great place to visit (well, I've only been to Spain and England, but I've heard good things...), but is that where you want to go play basketball? Apparently for Josh Childress the answer is yes.

For those who don't know who he is, Childress is a small forward who was the 6th man on the Atlanta Hawks last season, and he probably should have been a starter. As a restricted free agent, Childress didn't have many options in the NBA-- the Hawks could match any offer from an NBA team, and apparently they were also reluctant to agree to a sign and trade.

So apparently Childress (and his agent) decided to think outside the box. He signed with Olympiacos (Greece) for about 3 years and $20 million, but with the added perk that his team would pay his taxes. That contract is apparently the most lucrative current contract in Europe, and probably ends up being more (once perks are included) than he could have earned here. And if Childress wants to return to the NBA (where the Hawks will retain his rights as a restricted free agent), he has an opt-out clause in his contract after every season. Not a bad deal.

This deal caught my attention for two reasons (aside from the general "Oh my god, an American chose to play in Europe over America" angle). First, I think Childress is a good player (WP48 of .206), and one I would have loved to have seen in a Sixers uniform. Granted that getting Childress was highly unlikely based on the Sixers' salary cap situation after the Brand signing, but he was starter quality (if not even better) while viewed as a back-up, so I had a vague hope that we could somehow steal him.

Second, the Sixers are currently negotiating with their own restricted free agent, Andre Igoudala. I've been assuming that there was basically no chance that Igoudala was going anywhere (and Mo Cheeks seemed to be under the same assumption, as evidenced by the article posted in the comments to one of my previous posts). The decision of Childress to head overseas gave me pause, but only for a moment. As I noted, Childress received the most lucrative current contract in Europe. Igoudala is almost certainly going to end up with a bigger contract than the one given to Childress (although according to WP48 he might not deserve a bigger one), so it seems unlikely that a European team is going to make Igoudala a better offer than the one the Sixers will (have?) put on the table.

On a more global view, I don't think that the decision of Childress (and a few international players) to leave the NBA for European leagues is really the start of a trend, but I guess it's always possible. If so, then it's possible we could end up in a situation where the top tier players remain in the NBA, the middle tier players go to Europe as the "big fish" over there, and the lower tier players make up the bulk of the NBA rosters. In that scenario, I think everyone in the NBA suffers because the quality of play becomes much more uneven. European basketball gets stronger, but still remains a step below the NBA. All in all, I don't think that's a great result for basketball fans (but maybe that's just because I watch the NBA and not European basketball).

What do you think?