Resigning our restricted free agents

I'm back! I know you all terribly missed me. Since I know you don't care about the three days I spent this weekend hiking, kayaking, and fishing near Seward, I'll just jump right back into looking at the Sixers' off-season moves.

The biggest part of the Sixers' off-season that we still needed to look at was the Sixers' success in resigning our restricted free agents-- Louis Williams and Andre Igoudala (or Andre Igoudala and Louis Williams if you insist).

I can happily report that as of a few days ago, the Sixers have now successfully signed both of them to long-term deals.

Louis Williams officially signed his deal with the Sixers on August 4, although he tentatively had reached agreement with the Sixers a few days before that. For $25 million over 5 years, it seems like the Sixers' got a decent deal. He's probably not quite worth it today, but he's already a solid player, he's gotten better each year, and he's still young (21 years old). It never seemed like he was interested in leaving, but it's still nice to get the deal done.

As for Igoudala, we've already discussed the Sixers' seeming difficulty in signing him a few times (notably with regards to the slight possibility of a European team targeting him and the Luol Deng signing meaning Igoudala's asking price was going to be higher than hoped). That all changed a few days ago, however, when the Sixers offered Igoudala a staggering (at least to me) deal for $80 million over six years.

I'm happy we signed Igoudala, but I need to admit the price tag scares me a bit. I said that I thought Deng received more than I thought Igoudala was worth ($71 million over six years), and now we've signed Igoudala for even more. Wow. Apparently Stefanski feels like Igoudala is going to be an all-star over the next few years. I think there's a decent chance that Igoudala reaches that level, but with the contract he signed we're in a pretty rough place if he doesn't reach that level.

Ignoring the amount of money involved in the contracts, the Sixers are clearly a better team with Igoudala than without him. So from a fan's perspective (and the perspective of checking off items from the off-season to-do list), I'm excited.

And since I'm not writing the checks, I guess that's the only perspective I really need to worry about...

Up Next: Filling out the roster

Off-season moves

The other week, we had looked at the Sixers' roster as of the end of last season in order to identify the Sixers' needs going into this off-season. I summarized my analysis in this fashion:

In general, I think the numbers show that the Sixers' most glaring need was to improve the shooting guard position. Resigning Igoudala also was a clear off-season priority (although, as noted, not for all-star money). Simply accomplishing these two goals would have made the off-season a solid success, most likely ensuring a return to the playoffs. Beyond that, putting together a bench that inspires a bit more confidence was probably the next most urgent need. Resigning Louis Williams seems likely to help in that regard, but he's not nearly as certain to help as I think most people believe (including me before I did this analysis).

The Sixers have now made a number of moves, so it's time to see how these moves match up with the needs we identified. To start with, I think that the Sixers' moves this off-season can be grouped into four general categories: (1) The Draft, (2) The Elton Brand chase, (3) Resigning Our Restricted Free Agents, and (4) Rounding Out the Roster. I'll take each off these categories one at a time over the next couple of days.

In the mean time, I saw that Jason Smith injured himself the other day (ACL tear) and is out for an indefinite period of time. I obviously don't wish injury on anyone. At the same time, since our analysis from the other day indicated that Smith did not help the team much last season, but was still likely to get signficant playing time based on the general perception of his play, his injury (and unavailability to play) could actually be a slight boon to our chances this year. Of course, he was obviously just a rookie last season and therefore could have improved this year, so maybe I'm being too hard.

Up next: The Draft.

Looking at the Sixers' Roster

After the NBA Finals, my plan had been to take a look at the Sixers' roster using PER, WP48, ,and Adjusted +/- to determine where the Sixers stood and determine what their biggest needs were. Then I was going to propose ways for them to get better this off-season.

Obviously, I didn't get around to it right away. And in the meantime, the Sixers have made a few minor moves. (What? You wouldn't consider the Elton Brand signing a minor move...?)

That said, I thought it would still be a useful exercise, and now we'll also be able to evaluate the moves the Sixers have made this offseason in the context of the needs we identify.

For now, let's just look at the Sixers' roster as it stood at the end of last season (I've posted these numbers for the starters before-- in the posts comparing the Sixers to the Clippers):

(by the way-- if anyone knows how to import a spreadsheet into blogger, please let me know. Typing everything in neat columns isn't really my forte!)

PER Adj +/- WP48 Status

Andre Miller 18.51 -8.70 .167 signed
Willie Green 12.91 -0.75 -.019 signed
Andre Igoudala 19.05 4.95 .172 restricted free agent
Reggie Evans 11.05 2.75 .143 signed
Samuel Dalembert 15.62 0.73 .197 signed
Louis Williams 16.71 -7.68 .080 restricted free agent
Thaddeus Young 16.58 12.33 .099 signed
Jason Smith 10.76 -1.37 -.039 signed
Louis Amundson 7.59 n/a -.172 free agent
Herbert Hill n/a n/a n/a free agent
Shavlik Randolph 15.05 n/a .029 free agent
Kevin Ollie 9.81 n/a .017 free agent
Rodney Carney 12.15 1.54 -.032 signed
Calvin Booth n/a n/a -.033 signed

So looking at these numbers for the Sixers' roster at the start of the off-season, what do we see?

First, these stats don't agree on the value of our players. Some players rank high on PER, but low on adjusted +/-. Others low on PER, but high on WP48. So it isn't clear just from putting up these numbers how the roster should be evaluated. Unless, of course, you believe unreservedly in one metric, in which case things are much easier for you.

That said, I think it's a safe assumption that a player who rates well on all three metrics is a good player. On that basis, it seems clear that Andre Igoudala and Samuel Dalembert were the Sixers' cornerstones last season, ranking above average on all three metrics. That said, neither one really breaks into all-star territory on any of the three metrics.

As far as the other starters go, Andre Miller and Reggie Evans were either good (on two metrics each) or bad (on one metric each) depending on which metric you rely on. For now, I'll go with the majority of metrics and view the Sixers as being solid at both of these positions. Willie Green, on the other hand, is considered below average (or bad) by all three metrics.

Looking at the bench, we can see that Thaddeus Young had a very good rookie season. Beyond that, the results are mixed, at best. Louis Williams is either slightly above average (PER), slightly below average (WP48), or downright crappy. Rodney Carney was either below average (PER, WP48) or above average (adjusted +/-). Jason Smith was poor, despite the relatively positive reviews he received during the season. And the rest of the roster didn't really play enough to be evaluated, although Shavlik Randolph seems to be the most promising from the end of the bench crew.

In general, I think the numbers show that the Sixers' most glaring need was to improve the shooting guard position. Resigning Igoudala also was a clear off-season priority (although, as noted, not for all-star money). Simply accomplishing these two goals would have made the off-season a solid success, most likely ensuring a return to the playoffs. Beyond that, putting together a bench that inspires a bit more confidence was probably the next most urgent need. Resigning Louis Williams seems likely to help in that regard, but he's not nearly as certain to help as I think most people believe (including me before I did this analysis).

And I guess I should note that if you think adjusted +/- is clearly the best indicator, then strengthening the point guard position, and not the shooting guard position, is actually the Sixers' biggest need.

So that would have been the doctor's prescription for this off-season. In my next post, I'll take a look at how the Sixers' actual moves (so far) have matched (or not matched) these needs.

We got him! We got him!

Wow. We got Elton Brand. Woo-hoo!

For the details, go here.

And for a positive assessment of what this means for the Sixers, go here:

Are the Philadelphia 76ers, as presently constituted, good enough to win the East in the 2008-09 season? Doubtful.

But are the Sixers good enough to win a playoff series or two and scare the bejeezus out of Detroit and Boston? You bet. And if they add a shooter and get another year of growth from all their young studs, will they be in position to win the conference in 2010? Absolutely.

The Elton Brand mirage (?)I

If the Sixers were able to sign Elton Brand, I can't even begin to describe how happy I'd be. He's a great player, plus he fits the Sixers need for a strong low-post presence.

I was in the middle of writing that despite how excited I'd be and the flurry of articles today about the possibility, I seriously doubted that the Sixers were in real contention for his services. Then I went to ESPN.com to try and find links to the articles that I'd read on the topic earlier today, and I came across this article:

NBA front-office sources told ESPN.com on Tuesday that Brand has informed the Sixers that he will accept a five-year deal worth an estimated $82 million and spurn what was presumed to be a slam-dunk return to the Los Angeles Clippers to hook up with Clipper-to-be Baron Davis.

I mean...wow. Just, wow.

(I'm speechless)

(As a side note, all the articles from earlier in the day have been replaced by updated versions that include this more recent information, so no links to them. Sorry.)

As the articles from earlier today hinted (and this most recent article stated), the Sixers are creating more room under the salary cap to make this signing possible by trading Rodney Carney, Calvin Booth, and a first round pick to the Timberwolves for a second round pick and/or a part of a trade exception (depending on which article you read-- the trade has only been agreed to in principle at this point). It seems odd to trade away players for basically nothing, but I wasn't too bothered by the trade because I haven't been very impressed by Carney and hopefully the Sixers first round pick won't be a good one in coming years. If this trade actually makes it possible for the Sixers to sign Brand, I'll be one happy camper.

If I'm a Clippers fan, then I'm definitely one unhappy camper. And I'd probably feel a little used. After all, when Brand opted out of the last year of his contract, he talked about how he planned on resigning with the Clippers and was opting out in part to give the Clippers more payroll flexibility so they could get him some better support. So what happens? The Clippers go out and reach an agreement in principle with Baron Davis, using some of the money that could have been used for Brand, and Brand (apparently) agrees to sign with another team for less than the Clippers could have originally offered him (but more than the current offer). And less than the Warriors are offering. Huh.

(If you're keeping track, the reported offers are: Sixers, 5 years, $82 milliion; Clippers, 5 years, $75 million; Warriors, 5 years, $90 million.)

I guess we'll find out what's really going on tomorrow. And in the mean time, for a well-balanced, let's-not-get-all-hysterical-quite-yet take on the situation from the perspective of a Clippers fan, you can go here. For a Sixers fan, this paragraph is probably the key insight:

Look, we don't have any more information from Elton today than we did last Monday night. It's a little nerve-wracking, I'll grant you that. But we suspected most of this would happen from the start, didn't we? We suspected Philly would try to get in the game. We suspected (after the first day or so), that Elton would take his time and listen to everyone, if only to do his due diligence. Did Philly shed contracts in order to squeeze out a bigger offer to EB because of 'smoke signals coming from Brand's teepee' as John Hollinger so politically incorrectly put it? Maybe, maybe not. Remember, they've got their sights set on Josh Smith too, and a bigger offer there is just as relevant as a bigger offer to Brand. They'll offer the money to Brand first for two reasons - one, he's better. But more importantly, he's unrestricted and can answer with a simple 'yes' or 'no'. With Smith, if they make the offer and he accepts it, Atlanta has 7 days to match, which could tie up Philly's money for 7 days. So an offer to Smith precludes an offer to Brand. So you go after Brand first, whether or not it's a long shot.

The idea that the Sixers have a more exciting team for Brand to join just doesn't ring true. Andre Miller? EB's been there and done that, and even if he thought Andre was a great piece of the puzzle there, this is pretty clearly his last season in Philly. So I hardly see Miller as a big draw. Does Elton want to get into the Eastern Conference where he can make the all star team and the playoffs without breaking a sweat? Maybe. But I fail to see the Sixers as having a more promising future than the Clippers with Baron Davis.

(I disagree that the Clippers have a brighter future than the Sixers, but everyone thinks a little more highly of their own team's future)

Say hello to Josh Smith

Before diving into the players available in free agency, I was hoping to get a post up looking at the current players on the Sixers roster. After all, its hard to know who you should go after in free agency unless you have a good sense of what your needs are.

It has quickly become apparent to me, however, that following that strategy might mean I don't get around to commenting on the major free agency story (involving the Sixers). In case you've missed it, the Sixers are involved in a full-court courtship of Josh Smith, a power forward on the Atlanta Hawks.

Smith is a restricted free agent, which means that the Hawks have the right to match any offer. The Hawks have said that they'll match any offer, but no one knows if that's really the case. Regardless, it doesn't seem to have deterred the Sixers from pursuing him. (Although last year it sure seemed to deter teams from making offers to some restricted free agents.) Based on the articles linked above, it appears the Sixers plan to offer Smith a 5 year, $67 million deal.

That's a good chunk of change. But is he worth it?

Let me start off by admitting that I don't think I've really ever had the chance to watch Josh Smith play. Of course, that's not going to stop me from commenting on him....

Off the bat, he's known for his athleticism-- he's a ferocious finisher and top-tier weakside shot-blocker. He's not particularly known for his handle or shooting, although he can apparently step out to the three-point line with some success. He's definitely not known as being a back-to-the-basket scorer, so don't expect him to solve that weakness for the Sixers. Qualitatively, he seems to fit in with many of the current Sixers-- athletic players who can play disruptive defense (even if not tremendous straight-up man-to-man) and get out on the break, but aren't particularly strong in a half-court set.

That's the general description. Now, what do the numbers tell us?

Looking at the basic boxscore stats, Smith averaged 17.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks last season. He did, however, have a whole bunch of turnovers. Going further, there are three main "advanced" stats combining the basic box score stats in a variety of ways that get the most attention-- Wins Produced (which I've used a bunch over the past year), Adjusted +/-, and John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER), so let's look at all three.

In terms of Wins Produced, Smith was the eleventh most productive power forward last season, producing 6.7 wins. However, that ranking seems to be a bit misleading. Smith accumulated much of his wins produced total because he played so many minutes. His WP48 was .110, not so spectacular when you consider that average WP48 is .100. For comparison purposes, Reggie Evans ranked 14th with 5.6 wins produced, but his WP48 was .143. So Wins Produced indicates that Smith was above average, but not by that much.

In terms of Adjusted +/-, Smith was the tenth best power forward last season (and 35th in the league), scoring a +5.14. For comparison purposes, Thaddeus Young was the best Sixer last season with a +12.33 (third in the league) and Andre Igoudala had a +4.95 (38th in the league). So Adjusted +/- shows Smith to be a good player, but not necessarily an elite player.

In terms of PER, Smith was the eleventh best power forward last season, scoring a 19.08 (average is 15.00). Kevin Garnett was the best power forward at 25.30, while Reggie Evans clocked in with an 11.05. The top Sixer, at any position, was Andre Igoudala with a 19.05. So by PER, Smith is again a good player, but not necessarily an elite player. However, he would be the Sixers' best player according to PER.

So what's the verdict?

The advanced stats tell us that based on current production, Smith is probably around the tenth best power forward in the NBA. That's good, and he'd definitely help the Sixers win more games, but that isn't necessarily elite. And for $67 million over 5 seasons, I think the Sixers probably need to find someone a little closer to elite. Of course, Smith is also only 22 years old and has apparently gotten better every year he's been in the league. If he keeps improving (really, if he just improves slightly), then signing him to this contract would probably be a good investment.

All in all, a very close call. Good thing that I'm not the one who needs to make these decisions. I just get to make snarky comments about the decisions that are made.

What's your verdict?

First the draft, now free agency

Well, as Louis pointed out in the comments, no one drafted Mike Green. I hope the Sixers take a look at him for summer league, but somehow I doubt it. My other "sleeper," Joey Dorsey, was selected in the second round and eventually ended up on the Rockets (after being selected 33rd by the Trailblazers). He's a big defensive and rebounding presence, and I think he's going to have a successful NBA career. But probably not with the Rockets, since they already have Luis Scola, Carl Landry (if he resigns), and Chuck Hayes at power forward.

But who cares about the draft anymore? Free agency is here!

And things have gotten off to a wild start, with Baron Davis reportedly agreeing to terms with the LA Clippers (and Elton Brand supposedly ready to resign as well).

With the Clippers having already made their move, the Grizzlies and Sixers are the two teams with substantial space remaining under the salary cap. So hopefully that puts the Sixers in a good position to sign players at a reasonable price.

What's the best option for the Sixers? I don't know, but I'll take a stab at trying to figure it out over the next couple of days.

My other favorite rebounder

Over at SI.com today, Marty Burns was all over the Anderson Varejao story. (By that, I mean that he was clearly the reporter chosen by Varejao's camp to receive a leak to try and push his negotiations with the Cavaliers towards a resolution.) First, Burns posts an article quoting people "close to" Varejao saying that he would be willing to accept a $5 million, one year deal instead of the bigger money, longer term deal he was seeking. Such a deal would allow Varejao to become an unrestricted free agent next year, instead of the restricted free agent he is currently. Now, just a few hours later, Burns is back with an article basically saying the Cavaliers response was "thanks, but no thanks."

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Why don't the Sixers make Varejao an offer? If Varejao is really willing to sign for close to the mid-level exception for one year, the Sixers have nothing to lose by making the offer. If the Cavs match, then nothing has been lost (unless the Sixers really think Varejao and the Cavaliers won't reach an agreement, and that the Cavaliers will fall below the Sixers in the playoff race without him...). If the Cavaliers don't match, then the Sixers have a superb rebounder/defender to help out their frontcourt this year. Plus, I think they'd have the inside track on re-signing him for next year. I really wish someone could explain to me why the Sixers (or some other team) isn't making this offer right now.

Why sign Igoudala to an extension now?

In today's Sixers Notes, Marc Narducci shares with us the information that Andre Igoudala says he's not too concerned with his ongoing contract negotiations--his agent is taking care of it, and he's just going to play basketball.

This brief snippet leads to two comments:

(1) Good for Igoudala. You aren't supposed to let your play be affected by ongoing contract negotiations, especially when you're still under contract for another two years. I always get annoyed when I hear about Player X possibly being a distraction because of unhappiness over contract negotiations, so it's nice to see (or, at least hear) a player doing (saying) the right things.

(2) What's the hurry to sign Igoudala to an extension right now? He's under contract for this coming season and the Sixers own his rights for next season. As long as they make a qualifying offer ($3.8 million), the Sixers will have the right to match any offers that he receives next summer. As we've seen this summer with Anderson Varejao, there aren't necessarily that many teams out there willing to make offers to restricted free agents, even very good ones. If the number being bandied around for Igoudala's contract extension is $12 million per year (based on the contract Kevin Martin recently received from Sacramento), then I think the Sixers owe it to themselves to take a bit more time to evaluate Igoudala before tying up a substantial portion of their salary cap space with his contract. I made the case earlier this summer that Igoudala is more likely to be the 3rd best player on a legitimate title contender than to be the cornerstone of a contender. I stand by that claim, but for $12 million/year he would need to be more like the cornerstone that pundits describe him as. Maybe I'm wrong, but shouldn't the Sixers at least wait until after he's been the centerpiece of the team for a full season before making that decision? Like I said at the start--what's the hurry?

It's getting to be that time of year again

In his column at ESPN.com today, Marc Stein gives his evaluation of the off-season moves made by each Eastern Conference team. He likes the Sixers pick-up of Reggie Evans, but other than that gives the Sixers low marks--primarily on the basis of the lack of moves made this summer. I'm not in agreement with all of his evaluations (for instance, I think Orlando took a step backwards this summer), but his column is a clear sign that "season preview" season is just around the corner. Training camps start in two weeks, and things around here will probably pick up a bit once that happens. I can't wait!

Oh yeah--Calvin Booth

Easy to overlook since he's probably not going to play substantial minutes, but the Sixers also picked up Calvin Booth last week. One thing Booth is not going to do is score--he averaged as many fouls as points last season (1.6). He's regarded as a defensive/shot-blocking specialist, but in looking at his numbers from last season I'm not sure that he deserves that reputation. Per 40 minutes, he averages 3.1 blocks, but only 8.5 rebounds and 7.5 fouls. That makes him a better shot-blocker than Samuel Dalembert (2.5/40 minutes), but a significantly worse rebounder (11.6/40 minutes). Plus, his extremely high foul rate makes him a bit of a liability--giving the other team lots of free throws isn't the best way to help the Sixers defense. And in case you were wondering, his WP48 last year was a measly .010 (remember, the average is .100). I don't know that the Sixers could have gotten anyone better (although I still think they should make the long-shot offer to Anderson Varejao), but I don't think Booth is going to be much of a help this season.

Varejao: Still not signed. Why not?

In looking at defensive efficiency last week, I highlighted the important role that mobile big men can play--allowing teams to pressure opposing teams (thus forcing turnovers) and still recover to be in position to contest shots and rebound missed shots. Considering the Sixers' defensive strength (i.e. DTOR) and weaknesses (i.e. TS% and DRR), I thought that Anderson Varejao would be the type of player who would be a perfect addition. His contributions to the Cleveland Cavaliers' superb defense demonstrates how he could fill the Sixers' need for a mobile big man who recovers well.

Varejao was also considered a hot commodity entering the off-season, so I assumed that (1) the Sixers had no chance of getting him, and (2) he would be snapped up right away. Based on these assumptions, I am little shocked that he currently remains unsigned. Accompanying this article over at the Wages of Wins talking about the remaining unsigned free agents, the author includes a table showing the WP48 and NBA Efficiency rankings of the remaining free agents. According to this chart, Varejao ranks third in WP48 and fourth in NBA efficiency among all free agents, and he ranks number one in both categories among restricted free agents.

So why hasn't Varejao been bombarded with offers? Steve Aschburner at CNNSI.com takes a look at restricted free agency and concludes that:

As long as Team A knows that Team B is likely to match any offer it puts on the table for a valuable young guy, Team A would be wasting its time wooing the player and structuring a contract. It would be doing an opposing club's work for it, since the original team merely would have to duplicate the paperwork's clauses and provisions.

Even worse, it would be tying up its own free-agent flexibility; the collective bargaining agreement gives the original team up to seven days to match an offer sheet, during which the player must be carried on the bidding team's books. That waiting period used to be 15 days, but there really is no good reason that it should be more than, say, one. Except, that is, to chill the market.

In Varejao's case, the Cavaliers can match most of the possible offer sheets because of the salary cap constrained position most teams find themselves in. Knowing their strong negotiating position, the Cavaliers made Varejao a $1.3 million qualifying offer--a low-ball offer for a player whose value is somewhere between $6 million (the Cavs offer on a long-term deal) and $10 million (his agent's belief) per year.

Most people think that Varejao will end up either signing the Cavaliers qualifying offer and pursuing unrestricted free agency next season or signing the Cavaliers long-term contract offer. I think the Sixers should offer him the $5.7 mid-level exception for a one year contract (the most they can offer for next year). In the Sixers' best case scenario, Varejao is annoyed enough at the Cavaliers that he accepts the Sixers offer, the Cavaliers refuse to match because of luxury cap concerns, the Sixers benefit from Varejao's efforts this coming season, and they can use this season to convince Varejao to sign a long-term contract next summer when the Sixers will be under the salary cap. In the worse case scenario, the Cavaliers match the qualifying offer, forcing a conference rival to spend more money this year to retain a player than they desired.

This plan would cost the Sixers $11.4 million because they'll be paying the luxury tax (The salary cap for this season is $55.63 million. The luxury tax is $67.865 million.), but I think it would be a worthwhile expenditure. Considering how little free agent action is going on these days, I don't see how the normal reasons for not dealing with restricted free agents (worry about wasting time, tying up free-agent flexibility) really apply. And if somehow Varejao ends up on the Sixers, then I think the Sixers are a playoff team this coming season.

Feels like a quiet day

Not much happening on the free agency front to report. I've been skimming various NBA related websites all day, and there just doesn't seem to be that much to talk about--certainly not Sixers related.

But if you feel the need to read something, there's been some talk about Memphis' new look and the somewhat puzzling trade made by the Spurs--a current NBA player and the rights to the best player in Europe (Luis Scola) for a European player who says he is definitely going back to Europe, a second round pick, and cash.

At that discount rate, maybe the Sixers could pick up Tim Duncan for Samuel Dalembert and a first round pick...

Darko...Polo...Darko...Polo

An article the other day reported that the Sixers were chatting with Darko Milicic about the possibility of signing him to a free agent contract. I'm all in favor of pursuing Darko--he's still young, he's shown some promising flashes--but I'd be very hesitant to give him anywhere near the size contract that he's reportedly seeking ($10 million/year).

Pursuing Milicic puts me in mind of the old children's game "Marco Polo." It's the game where one person is "it," they shut their eyes, call out "Marco," and all the other players yell out "Polo." The player who is "it" then tries to chase them down by following the voices. (I always played this game in the water, but I assume you could also play it on land.) The point is, you were always groping ahead pretty blindly. Sure, you had some idea of what you might find based on the shouts of "polo," but there was no guarantee that anyone would still be there when you arrived.

With Milicic, the flashes of talent he's shown in the past (his shouts of "polo") give you a hint of what you might be getting, but there's also no guarantee that those flashes of talent will actually come out once you sign him. He's been in the league four years already, so the next year or two will probably tell the story on whether or not he'll ever move beyond being a tantalizing prospect. If I was the Sixers, I'd try and sign him for close to the mid-level exception ($5.4 million). If there's no way to get him for that amount, then it might be worthwhile paying closer to the $10 M he's asking for, but only for a one or two year contract with team options for extra years. That way the Sixers have him if he pans out, and they aren't bogged down with a bad contract if he doesn't.

Free agents can start signing with teams today. If Milicic signs right away, then it means he found someone to take his (too high) asking price. The longer he goes without being signed, the better the Sixers' chances are to get him at a more reasonable price. Let's hope!

[Update: First, I've changed the time stamp on this post to reflect when I actually posted it, not when I first started a draft (it now shows a Wednesday time stamp rather than Tuesday). Second, according to reports in Thursday's papers, Milicic has agreed to a 3-year, $21 million contract with the Grizzlies--pretty close to the sort of contract I was arguing for in the original post. Can I be an NBA GM now?]

Lebron James' Cavs, Vince Carter's Raptors

In the immediate aftermath of the Spurs’ sweep of the Cavaliers in the finals, I read a number of columns about how the Cavs needed to improve the team and win a championship before Lebron becomes a free agent so that he doesn’t decide to sign elsewhere. On one level, the statement is innocuous enough—after all, the goal is to win championships, and the NBA Finals demonstrated that Cleveland still has a ways to go before it can be considered a top-tier championship contender. On another level, these columns really bothered me.

First things first—you don’t win championships to keep Lebron James around; you keep Lebron James around to win championships. Somehow, this basic point keeps getting lost in all the talk about improving the Cavaliers.

Second, and related—making personnel moves with the goal of keeping a player, as opposed to as part of the larger plan for creating a contender, can end up hurting a team in the long-run (and even not so long-run).

What do I mean? Well, just look at the Cavaliers. In the June 25, 2007 issue of Sports Illustrated, Jack McCallum mentions that the Cavaliers have several cumbersome contracts—those of Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall and Damon Jomes—that will be tough to unload. These contracts, seemingly by consensus, are the obstacles to bringing in the appropriate talent to surround Lebron so that he will choose to stay in Cleveland three years from now.

But wait a minute. All four of these players were signed in the summer of 2005 (Ilgauskas- 5 years, $50 million; Hughes- 5 years, $60 million; Marshall- 4 years, $22 million; Jones- 4 years, $16 million). And why were they signed? Well, the basketball reason was that the Cavaliers wanted to surround Lebron with scorers to prevent teams from collapsing on him, but the Cavaliers were also thinking about Lebron’s impending free agency in the summer of 2006. Making all of these moves was meant to keep Lebron from seriously exploring free agency. Now, only two years later, the contracts given to these four players are considered a major hindrance…to keeping Lebron from seriously exploring free agency.

In all fairness, I think these signings were better than the current conventional wisdom paints them. After all, they did convince Lebron to resign with the Cavaliers and three of these players (Ilgauskas, Hughes, Marshall) played an important role in getting the Cavaliers to the NBA Finals. However, without the desire (need?) to make a case to Lebron during the summer 0f 2005, there’s a decent chance the Cavaliers would have exhibited more patience and have put themselves in a better position to get the players they need to be top-tier championship contenders, not just top-tier Eastern Conference contenders.

If you want another example, look at Vince Carter’s Raptors. To convince Carter to resign in the summer of 2001, the Raptor’s signed Antonio Davis for $64 million over five years, Jerome Williams (seven years, $41 million), and Alvin Williams (seven years, $42 million), not to mention acquiring Hakeem Olajuwon ($17 million). And it worked…sort of. Carter signed an extension, theoretically keeping him in Toronto until 2008. Yet a few years later the Raptor’s were swooning as the age and health of these signings became a burden, Vince was dogging it, and eventually the Raptors were forced to trade him for 50 cents on the dollar (if that!) to the New Jersey Nets.

The moral of the story? Don’t panic if your superstar is approaching free agency. Sign the right players for your team; don’t just sign players that will convince your superstar to stick around in the short-run. Explain what you’re doing to your superstar, and count on him to understand. Otherwise, you’re mortgaging your chance to actually put together a team that can compete. And when the short-run fix becomes a long-run drain, the superstar can always find a way to force himself out of town, leaving the franchise to deal with the mess that’s been left behind.