Well, I'm sure it wasn't just for fun, but I'm still not sure what advantage both teams were looking for in the deal.
In case you haven't heard (and if you don't check basketball related websites religiously like I do, you probably haven't), the Miami Heat traded Ex-Celtic Antoine Walker, Michael Doleac, and some potato chips (potato chips = Wayne Simien and a conditional first round draft pick) to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Mark Blount and Ricky Davis.
When I first heard about the trade, my initial thought was that Kevin McHale was trying get as many former Celtics on his roster as he possibly could. Sort of like a scavenger hunt, but with real NBA players as the items you were supposed to collect.
Then I realized that both Ricky Davis and Mark Blount were also ex-Celtics, so McHale was actually lowering his number of former Celtics by making this trade. At this point, I decided it'd be impossible to figure out what the point of this trade was for either team (which doesn't mean I won't try).
As near as I can tell, this trade was done entirely for personality reasons. It's been all over the (basketball) news the last few days that Riley was unhappy with Walker for not being in condition to start training camp (I guess Shaq has a special dispensation to play his way into shape over the course of the season. Role players--and that's what Walker is these days--don't get that same luxury.) There were also reports earlier this summer (after the big trade for Garnett) that Al Jefferson hadn't really gotten along with Blount when they'd been in Boston together. If true (I have no idea), that would explain Minnesota's desire to make the trade.
In terms of playing ability, Michael Doleac and Mark Blount are basically the same player, and I don't buy the argument that Ricky Davis is a better offensive player than Walker--they're both high volume, low percentage shooters.
[brief pause as I go and actually look up Walker's and Davis' stats from last year...]
Well, it turns out Davis is a better offensive player, but not by that much. Last year Walker shot 39.5% from the filed, taking .37 shots/minute. Davis shot 46.3% from the field, taking .36 shots/minute. I was going to say that I thought Minnesota got both the better players and the better contracts (Walker's contract goes for two more years, but Blount's goes for three more years), but I guess I'll just need to say that Minnesota got the better contracts.
I guess for the first few weeks while Wade is out Davis will be an important player for the Heat, but I'm not sure I see him playing a major role once Wade returns. (And if Wade doesn't return, it really doesn't matter who the Heat have on their roster.) He can play pretty good perimeter defense, so maybe they can play him at the small forward position and have him guard the better perimeter players so Wade can rest on the defensive end. Still, I don't see this trade really doing much for the Heat's chances this year.
I'm also unclear what role Walker will have with the Timberwolves. Jefferson is clearly the centerpiece of the revamped team, and he and Walker both play the power forward spot. The Wolves could go small and play Jefferson at the center position, but if they were going to do that then I'd think they'd want Craig Smith to play the power forward position (a defensive and rebounding presence to complement Jefferson's offensive presence). The article I linked to indicated that McHale might have some other trades in the works, so my best guess is that Walker's stay in Minnesota will be a brief one.
And yes, I know that this trade doesn't impact the Sixers in any way.
Showing posts with label Minnesota Timberwolves. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Minnesota Timberwolves. Show all posts
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Friday, August 3, 2007
The Return of Celtic Pride
I know I'm a bit late to the party on this one, but I just wanted to give my thoughts on the Kevin Garnett-to-Boston trade that happened this week. I think I can sum it up in just a few words: I like it! And I actually like it for both teams.
First, the details:
From Boston's end, the attraction of the trade is a no-brainer: You get KG! He's one of the top five players in the league. For my money, if I needed a player for just this upcoming season, the only player in the league I would definitely take over KG would be Tim Duncan. There are a few other players I would need to really think about, but Duncan's the only one I would definitely put ahead of him. By pairing KG with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, the Celtics now have three players who complement each other and are all in their primes. Before, the Celtics were a bit mismatched--last year they had Pierce and a bunch of still-developing players, and even the addition of Ray Allen didn't really change that equation that much. They weren't good enough to contend now, and it wasn't clear that the veterans would still be good when the youngsters had finally developed. Now, the Celtics have a clear identity--they're trying to win now, and they have the veteran core to make that possible. I don't have any doubt that KG, Allen, and Pierce will all be Eastern Conference all-stars this season.
The one potential problem with the trade is that Boston's cupboard behind KAP (as they Big 3 will now be abbreviated) is now looking quite bare. KAP will be able to get the Celtics to the playoffs, but the real success of the season is going to depend on the talent that Danny Ainge is going to be able to put around them. The starting line-up is rounded out with Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo, a bit off a drop-off in talent from the other three starters. I think Perkins and Rondo will do fine (Perkins will supply defense and rebounding, Rondo will provide energy), but they are still a bit young. The drop-off in talent once you get to the bench is even more severe. I'm a big fan of Tony Allen (assuming he fully recovers from his injury), but after him I'm not sure that anyone on the bench is really going to contribute much (Leon Powe? Brian Scalabrine?). The absence of an NBA ready back-up point guard is a particularly bad situation.
The most in-depth analysis I've seen about the importance of surrounding KAP with talent for a successful season can be found in this article at the Wages of Wins. The basic gist of the article is that KAP are good for 40 wins by themselves (assuming 35 minutes a game, playing as well as they did last season). If they get the NBA average amount of support from the rest of the team, the Celtics will win around 50 games. If they get as little support as the Nets' Big 3 get (the worst in the league), then they'll only win around 45 games. Based on the Celtics current roster, 45 wins looks a lot more likely, so hopefully Ainge will be able to pick up some more talent before the season starts. Personally, I think the Celtics should make sure to play KAP between 30-35 minutes a game to make sure they get enough rest over the course of the season. 45 wins will be plenty to make the playoffs. Then the Celtics can ride their horses for 40+ minutes a night in the playoffs a make a real run for the NBA Finals.
From the Timberwolves' perspective, this trade was all about the future. Even with KG, the Timberwolves hadn't made the playoffs in two years, and they really didn't have any good way to obtain the talent needed to surround him. The Timberwolves will be one of the worst teams in the league this year, but now they have a handful of young talents who might develop into future stars. Getting back their first round pick is a big deal because, based on how bad they'll be this year, that pick could end up being the top pick in next year's NBA draft.
I'm a huge fan of Al Jefferson. I think he was definitely going to be an all-star in the Eastern Conference this year. The Western Conference is loaded with power forwards so Jefferson will not be in the top tier of power forwards in the conference this year, but in two years I think there's a very good chance he'll have played his way onto that all-star team. Including "Big Al," the young talent on the Timberwolves' roster includes Randy Foye, Gerald Green, Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants, Craig Smith, Chris Richards (assuming he signs), and Sebastian Telfair (all of whom have been in the NBA three years or less). There's definitely a bit of duplication in skills among these players (particularly at the shooting guard and small forward position), so it'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out.
I haven't seen the holdover Timberwolves play so I don't have any opinions on them (Foye, Smith, McCants), but I do think the players who just arrive from Boston have bright futures. The one player in the bunch who I think has gotten a bad rap is Sebastian Telfair. He's had some off-court issues, but mostly he's been criticized for his on-court play which puzzles me a little bit. From watching him play, I think he plays the way a point-guard should--he moves the ball and gets his teammates involved. His passes don't necessarily lead to assists, but they keep the offense flowing (as opposed to Delonte West, for instance, who people seem to really like, but who tends to pound the ball forever when he's playing the point). His WP48 is terrible (-0.075), but I think he's doing something right--as you can see on this chart, last season the plus/minus of every Celtic except Jefferson and Green was better with him on the court than when he was not on the court. The only other Celtics who could make that claim were Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo!
So all in all: Good trade for the Celtics because it gives them a legitimate chance to contend for the Eastern Conference title right now, and good trade for the Timberwolves because they weren't going anywhere with KG and this trade gives them a chance to build around young, developing talent.
The only bad news is that this just creates another Eastern Conference team that is clearly superior to the Sixers (who have neither competitive veteran talent nor substantial young talent)...
First, the details:
Boston sent the Minnesota Timberwolves forwards Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes and Gerald Green, guard Sebastian Telfair and center Theo Ratliff, two first-round draft picks and cash considerations. Besides Ratliff, 34, the other four are 22 or younger.
...
The Timberwolves get the Celtics' first-round pick in 2009, unless it is among the top three, and a return of Minnesota's conditional first-round draft pick obtained in January 2006 when they sent Ricky Davis to the Timberwolves for Wally Szczerbiak.
From Boston's end, the attraction of the trade is a no-brainer: You get KG! He's one of the top five players in the league. For my money, if I needed a player for just this upcoming season, the only player in the league I would definitely take over KG would be Tim Duncan. There are a few other players I would need to really think about, but Duncan's the only one I would definitely put ahead of him. By pairing KG with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, the Celtics now have three players who complement each other and are all in their primes. Before, the Celtics were a bit mismatched--last year they had Pierce and a bunch of still-developing players, and even the addition of Ray Allen didn't really change that equation that much. They weren't good enough to contend now, and it wasn't clear that the veterans would still be good when the youngsters had finally developed. Now, the Celtics have a clear identity--they're trying to win now, and they have the veteran core to make that possible. I don't have any doubt that KG, Allen, and Pierce will all be Eastern Conference all-stars this season.
The one potential problem with the trade is that Boston's cupboard behind KAP (as they Big 3 will now be abbreviated) is now looking quite bare. KAP will be able to get the Celtics to the playoffs, but the real success of the season is going to depend on the talent that Danny Ainge is going to be able to put around them. The starting line-up is rounded out with Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo, a bit off a drop-off in talent from the other three starters. I think Perkins and Rondo will do fine (Perkins will supply defense and rebounding, Rondo will provide energy), but they are still a bit young. The drop-off in talent once you get to the bench is even more severe. I'm a big fan of Tony Allen (assuming he fully recovers from his injury), but after him I'm not sure that anyone on the bench is really going to contribute much (Leon Powe? Brian Scalabrine?). The absence of an NBA ready back-up point guard is a particularly bad situation.
The most in-depth analysis I've seen about the importance of surrounding KAP with talent for a successful season can be found in this article at the Wages of Wins. The basic gist of the article is that KAP are good for 40 wins by themselves (assuming 35 minutes a game, playing as well as they did last season). If they get the NBA average amount of support from the rest of the team, the Celtics will win around 50 games. If they get as little support as the Nets' Big 3 get (the worst in the league), then they'll only win around 45 games. Based on the Celtics current roster, 45 wins looks a lot more likely, so hopefully Ainge will be able to pick up some more talent before the season starts. Personally, I think the Celtics should make sure to play KAP between 30-35 minutes a game to make sure they get enough rest over the course of the season. 45 wins will be plenty to make the playoffs. Then the Celtics can ride their horses for 40+ minutes a night in the playoffs a make a real run for the NBA Finals.
From the Timberwolves' perspective, this trade was all about the future. Even with KG, the Timberwolves hadn't made the playoffs in two years, and they really didn't have any good way to obtain the talent needed to surround him. The Timberwolves will be one of the worst teams in the league this year, but now they have a handful of young talents who might develop into future stars. Getting back their first round pick is a big deal because, based on how bad they'll be this year, that pick could end up being the top pick in next year's NBA draft.
I'm a huge fan of Al Jefferson. I think he was definitely going to be an all-star in the Eastern Conference this year. The Western Conference is loaded with power forwards so Jefferson will not be in the top tier of power forwards in the conference this year, but in two years I think there's a very good chance he'll have played his way onto that all-star team. Including "Big Al," the young talent on the Timberwolves' roster includes Randy Foye, Gerald Green, Corey Brewer, Rashad McCants, Craig Smith, Chris Richards (assuming he signs), and Sebastian Telfair (all of whom have been in the NBA three years or less). There's definitely a bit of duplication in skills among these players (particularly at the shooting guard and small forward position), so it'll be interesting to see how it all shakes out.
I haven't seen the holdover Timberwolves play so I don't have any opinions on them (Foye, Smith, McCants), but I do think the players who just arrive from Boston have bright futures. The one player in the bunch who I think has gotten a bad rap is Sebastian Telfair. He's had some off-court issues, but mostly he's been criticized for his on-court play which puzzles me a little bit. From watching him play, I think he plays the way a point-guard should--he moves the ball and gets his teammates involved. His passes don't necessarily lead to assists, but they keep the offense flowing (as opposed to Delonte West, for instance, who people seem to really like, but who tends to pound the ball forever when he's playing the point). His WP48 is terrible (-0.075), but I think he's doing something right--as you can see on this chart, last season the plus/minus of every Celtic except Jefferson and Green was better with him on the court than when he was not on the court. The only other Celtics who could make that claim were Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo!
So all in all: Good trade for the Celtics because it gives them a legitimate chance to contend for the Eastern Conference title right now, and good trade for the Timberwolves because they weren't going anywhere with KG and this trade gives them a chance to build around young, developing talent.
The only bad news is that this just creates another Eastern Conference team that is clearly superior to the Sixers (who have neither competitive veteran talent nor substantial young talent)...
Thursday, July 5, 2007
High profile offers for Greg Oden
Via TrueHoop, we get directed to this article by Jason Quick in the Oregonian from this past Sunday. In it, Quick describes some of the offers that Kevin Pritchard (the Trailblazer's GM) received for the number one pick (i.e. Greg Oden) in this past draft, and apparently some of the offers were quite substantial:
In the first trade offer, I think it's clear that the offer was Paul Pierce and the Celtic's lottery pick (5th overall). There are only six Eastern conference teams that were in the lottery this year (Atlanta- twice, Milwaukee, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago- from New York, and Philadelphia), and Paul Pierce is the only five-time all-star on any of these rosters.
In the second trade offer, I think the offer must have been Kevin Garnett and Randy Foye. The teams in the Blazer's division are Utah, Denver, Minnesota, and Seattle. Of those teams, only Denver (Iverson) and Minnesota (Garnett) have players that I would consider certain Hall of Famers at this stage of their careers, and of those two teams only Minnesota had a standout rookie this past season.
The third trade offer I think is a bit trickier. Over at TrueHoop, Henry Abbot identifies San Antonio, Phoenix, and Dallas as the Western conference powers, eliminates Nowitzki from consideration as not a certain first-ballot Hall of Famer, eliminates Nash because the Suns attack only works with him running it, and comes to the conclusion that the Spurs offered Tim Duncan for the right to pick Greg Oden. I'm not sure I agree.
First, I find it hard to believe that the Spurs would offer Tim Duncan in a trade under any circumstances. He is, in my opinion, currently the best player in the NBA. His teams just win. And the Spurs have a very real chance to win another 2-3 NBA titles before Duncan retires. Why make a trade to get someone who may or may not one day be as good as Duncan is right now? I don't think it makes much sense, especially since the Spurs are already stockpiling talent (drafting players who continue playing overseas) for the day when Duncan is no longer the dominant force in the NBA. In addition, the same article by Quick mentions Popovich having a conversation with Pritchard, apparently before this third trade offer was made, in which Popovich talked about Pritchard having the chance to put together a twin-towers tandem even better than Duncan and David Robinson had been. I highly doubt he would have given such fulsome praise to Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge just before trying to get Pritchard to trade Oden.
If not Duncan, then who? I really don't know, but I think Henry Abbott might have read "Western conference power" too restrictively. In my mind, the two current first ballot Hall of Famers playing in the Western conference are Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant. While they aren't currently a powerhouse, the Lakers are still a playoff team and they are certainly a traditional Western conference power. Especially considering all the Kobe Bryant fireworks that have gone on this summer, I think it's more likely that the mystery general manager was Mitch Kupchak (the Laker's GM) rather than RC Buford (the Spur's GM). But I guess we'll never really know.
- From an Eastern conference team: A five-time All-Star and this year's lottery pick in exchange for the No. 1 pick and the Blazers' 2008 first-round pick.
- A team within the Blazers division proposed a trade involving a future Hall of Famer and a standout rookie for the Blazers' No. 1 pick.
- From a "Western conference power": The general manager wanted the Blazers' No. 1 pick. And he was willing to offer a player that will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
In the first trade offer, I think it's clear that the offer was Paul Pierce and the Celtic's lottery pick (5th overall). There are only six Eastern conference teams that were in the lottery this year (Atlanta- twice, Milwaukee, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago- from New York, and Philadelphia), and Paul Pierce is the only five-time all-star on any of these rosters.
In the second trade offer, I think the offer must have been Kevin Garnett and Randy Foye. The teams in the Blazer's division are Utah, Denver, Minnesota, and Seattle. Of those teams, only Denver (Iverson) and Minnesota (Garnett) have players that I would consider certain Hall of Famers at this stage of their careers, and of those two teams only Minnesota had a standout rookie this past season.
The third trade offer I think is a bit trickier. Over at TrueHoop, Henry Abbot identifies San Antonio, Phoenix, and Dallas as the Western conference powers, eliminates Nowitzki from consideration as not a certain first-ballot Hall of Famer, eliminates Nash because the Suns attack only works with him running it, and comes to the conclusion that the Spurs offered Tim Duncan for the right to pick Greg Oden. I'm not sure I agree.
First, I find it hard to believe that the Spurs would offer Tim Duncan in a trade under any circumstances. He is, in my opinion, currently the best player in the NBA. His teams just win. And the Spurs have a very real chance to win another 2-3 NBA titles before Duncan retires. Why make a trade to get someone who may or may not one day be as good as Duncan is right now? I don't think it makes much sense, especially since the Spurs are already stockpiling talent (drafting players who continue playing overseas) for the day when Duncan is no longer the dominant force in the NBA. In addition, the same article by Quick mentions Popovich having a conversation with Pritchard, apparently before this third trade offer was made, in which Popovich talked about Pritchard having the chance to put together a twin-towers tandem even better than Duncan and David Robinson had been. I highly doubt he would have given such fulsome praise to Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge just before trying to get Pritchard to trade Oden.
If not Duncan, then who? I really don't know, but I think Henry Abbott might have read "Western conference power" too restrictively. In my mind, the two current first ballot Hall of Famers playing in the Western conference are Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant. While they aren't currently a powerhouse, the Lakers are still a playoff team and they are certainly a traditional Western conference power. Especially considering all the Kobe Bryant fireworks that have gone on this summer, I think it's more likely that the mystery general manager was Mitch Kupchak (the Laker's GM) rather than RC Buford (the Spur's GM). But I guess we'll never really know.
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